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Dynamical systems describe how a physical system evolves over time. Physical processes can evolve faster or slower in different environmental conditions. We use time-warping as rescaling the time in a model of a physical system. This thesis…

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural networks (RNNs) rely on gating signals, each driven by a function of a weighted sum of at least 3 components: (i) one of an adaptive weight matrix multiplied by the incoming external input…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

An essential task in predictive maintenance is the prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through the analysis of multivariate time series. Using the sliding window method, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and conventional…

This paper investigates the application of machine learning models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D CNN), and Logistic Regression (LR), for predicting stock trends based on fundamental…

Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…

Various methods using machine and deep learning have been proposed to tackle different tasks in predictive process monitoring, forecasting for an ongoing case e.g. the most likely next event or suffix, its remaining time, or an…

Resilience engineering studies the ability of a system to survive and recover from disruptive events, which finds applications in several domains. Most studies emphasize resilience metrics to quantify system performance, whereas recent…

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Analysis of time-series data allows to identify long-term trends and make predictions that can help to improve our lives. With the rapid development of artificial neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN)…

The problem of automatic and accurate forecasting of time-series data has always been an interesting challenge for the machine learning and forecasting community. A majority of the real-world time-series problems have non-stationary…

Simulation-based inference techniques are indispensable for parameter estimation of mechanistic and simulable models with intractable likelihoods. While traditional statistical approaches like approximate Bayesian computation and Bayesian…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Recommender systems objectives can be broadly characterized as modeling user preferences over short-or long-term time horizon. A large body of previous research studied long-term recommendation through dimensionality reduction techniques…

Classification of sequence data is the topic of interest for dynamic Bayesian models and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). While the former can explicitly model the temporal dependencies between class variables, the latter have a capability…

Predicting stock price movements during Earnings Announcements (EAs) is a significant challenge due to market noise and high-impact price discontinuities. In this study, we evaluate whether pre-announcement news sentiment, firm…

High-frequency data observed on the prices of financial assets are commonly modeled by diffusion processes with micro-structure noise, and realized volatility-based methods are often used to estimate integrated volatility. For problems…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are brain-inspired models widely used in machine learning for analyzing sequential data. The present work is a contribution towards a deeper understanding of how RNNs process input signals using the response…

Time series forecasting has received a lot of attention, with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) being one of the widely used models due to their ability to handle sequential data. Previous studies on RNN time series forecasting, however,…

Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…