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Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-26 Steven Kleinegesse , Michael Gutmann

The construction of decision-theoretic Bayesian designs for realistically-complex nonlinear models is computationally challenging, as it requires the optimization of analytically intractable expected utility functions over high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-01 Antony Overstall , David Woods

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

Complex models used to describe biological processes in epidemiology and ecology often have computationally intractable or expensive likelihoods. This poses significant challenges in terms of Bayesian inference but more significantly in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-12 Mahasen Dehideniya , Antony M. Overstall , Chris C. Drovandi , James M. McGree

Traditionally Bayesian decision-theoretic design of experiments proceeds by choosing a design to minimise expectation of a given loss function over the space of all designs. The loss function encapsulates the aim of the experiment, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree

Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Steven Kleinegesse , Michael U. Gutmann

Bayesian optimal design is considered for experiments where the response distribution depends on the solution to a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. The motivation is an experiment to estimate parameters in the equations…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-02 Antony Overstall , David Woods , Ben Parker

Bayesian optimal design is a well-established approach to planning experiments. A distribution for the responses, i.e. a statistical model, is assumed which is dependent on unknown parameters. A utility function is then specified giving…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Antony M. Overstall , Jacinta Holloway-Brown , James M. McGree

The generation of decision-theoretic Bayesian optimal designs is complicated by the significant computational challenge of minimising an analytically intractable expected loss function over a, potentially, high-dimensional design space. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-07 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree , Christopher C. Drovandi

Bayesian optimal experimental design has immense potential to inform the collection of data so as to subsequently enhance our understanding of a variety of processes. However, a major impediment is the difficulty in evaluating optimal…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-14 David J. Price , Nigel G. Bean , Joshua V. Ross , Jonathan Tuke

The conventional approach to Bayesian decision-theoretic experiment design involves searching over possible experiments to select a design that maximizes the expected value of a specified utility function. The expectation is over the joint…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Tommie A. Catanach , Niladri Das

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-12-04 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

Structural reliability analysis is concerned with estimation of the probability of a critical event taking place, described by $P(g(\textbf{X}) \leq 0)$ for some $n$-dimensional random variable $\textbf{X}$ and some real-valued function…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-13 Christian Agrell , Kristina Rognlien Dahl

Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-11 Panagiotis Tsilifis , Roger G. Ghanem , Paris Hajali

We are often interested in identifying the feasible subset of a decision space under multiple constraints to permit effective design exploration. If determining feasibility required computationally expensive simulations, the cost of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Alma Rahat , Michael Wood

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Markus Hainy , David J. Price , Olivier Restif , Christopher Drovandi

Bayesian optimal experimental design is a sub-field of statistics focused on developing methods to make efficient use of experimental resources. Any potential design is evaluated in terms of a utility function, such as the (theoretically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-21 Noble Kennamer , Steven Walton , Alexander Ihler

The Design of Experiments (DOEs) is a fundamental scientific methodology that provides researchers with systematic principles and techniques to enhance the validity, reliability, and efficiency of experimental outcomes. In this study, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Miao Huang , Hongqiao Wang , Kunyu Wu

Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Bayesian experimental design is a technique that allows to efficiently select measurements to characterize a physical system by maximizing the expected information gain. Recent developments in deep neural networks and normalizing flows…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-06-27 Leopoldo Sarra , Florian Marquardt
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