Related papers: Approximation of Some Multivariate Risk Measures f…

In this paper we revisited the classical problem of max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums in two dimensions. In opposite to the most papers in literature, we consider that there exists some interdependence between the primary random…

For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals…

We present new M-estimators of the mean and variance of real valued random variables, based on PAC-Bayes bounds. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of those estimators for sample distributions having either a…

We give explicit bounds for the tail probabilities for sums of independent geometric or exponential variables, possibly with different parameters.

Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…

We consider weighted graphs satisfying sub-Gaussian estimate for the natural random walk. On such graphs, we study symmetric Markov chains with heavy tailed jumps. We establish a threshold behavior of such Markov chains when the index…

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for…

In this paper, we focus on multivariate doubly truncated first two moments of generalized skew-elliptical (GSE) distributions and derive explicit expressions for them. It includes many useful distributions, for examples, generalized…

Nowadays in density estimation, posterior rates of convergence for location and location-scale mixtures of Gaussians are only known under light-tail assumptions; with better rates achieved by location mixtures. It is conjectured, but not…

We consider random-design linear prediction and related questions on the lower tail of random matrices. It is known that, under boundedness constraints, the minimax risk is of order $d/n$ in dimension $d$ with $n$ samples. Here, we study…

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

We propose a new measure related with tail dependence in terms of correlation: quantile correlation coefficient of random variables X, Y. The quantile correlation is defined by the geometric mean of two quantile regression slopes of X on Y…

We establish a rather sharp two-side estimate for the tail probability of the derivative martingale limit in a branching random walk throughout the entire subcritical regime, confirming a conjecture by Lacoin, Rhodes, and Vargas (\emph{Duke…

Economically responsible mitigation of multivariate extreme risks-such as extreme rainfall over large areas, large simultaneous variations in many stock prices, or widespread breakdowns in transportation systems-requires assessing the…

In this paper we consider the extreme behavior of the extremal eigenvalues of white Wishart matrices, which plays an important role in multivariate analysis. In particular, we focus on the case when the dimension of the feature p is much…

We present the elliptical processes -- a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsumes the Gaussian process and the Student-t process. This generalization includes a range of new fat-tailed behaviors yet retains computational…

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…