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Modeling disease progression through multiple stages is critical for clinical decision-making for chronic diseases, e.g., cancer, diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, and so on. Existing approaches often model the disease progression as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Haoyu Yang , Sanjoy Dey , Pablo Meyer

In this study, we employ a transformer encoder model to characterize the significance of longitudinal patient data for forecasting the progression of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Our model, Longitudinal Forecasting Model for Alzheimer's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Batuhan K. Karaman , Mert R. Sabuncu

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-14 Vikram Venkatraghavan , Esther E. Bron , Wiro J. Niessen , Stefan Klein

As a general and robust alternative to traditional mean regression models, quantile regression avoids the assumption of normally distributed errors, making it a versatile choice when modeling outcomes such as cognitive scores that typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Rongke Lyu , Marina Vannucci , Suprateek Kundu

Disease progression modeling provides a robust framework to identify long-term disease trajectories from short-term biomarker data. It is a valuable tool to gain a deeper understanding of diseases with a long disease trajectory, such as…

Longitudinal patient data has the potential to improve clinical risk stratification models for disease. However, chronic diseases that progress slowly over time are often heterogeneous in their clinical presentation. Patients may progress…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-05 Dev Goyal , Zeeshan Syed , Jenna Wiens

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive accumulation of misfolded proteins, leading to cognitive decline. This study presents a novel stochastic modelling approach to simulate the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-06 Alec MacIver , Hina Shaheen

A novel framework is proposed for handling the complex task of modelling and analysis of longitudinal, multivariate, heterogeneous clinical data. This method uses temporal abstraction to convert the data into a more appropriate form for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Annette Spooner , Gelareh Mohammadi , Perminder S. Sachdev , Henry Brodaty , Arcot Sowmya

Prediction of the future trajectory of a disease is an important challenge for personalized medicine and population health management. However, many complex chronic diseases exhibit large degrees of heterogeneity, and furthermore there is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-17 Joseph Futoma , Mark Sendak , C. Blake Cameron , Katherine Heller

People are living longer than ever before, and with this arises new complications and challenges for humanity. Among the most pressing of these challenges is of understanding the role of aging in the development of dementia. This paper is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Jonathan P Williams , Curtis B Storlie , Terry M Therneau , Clifford R Jack , Jan Hannig

Quantitative characterization of disease progression using longitudinal data can provide long-term predictions for the pathological stages of individuals. This work studies the robust modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression using…

INTRODUCTION: Heterogeneity in the progression of Alzheimer's disease makes it challenging to predict the rate of cognitive and functional decline for individual patients. Tools for short-term prediction could help enrich clinical trial…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-22 Neda Shafiee , Mahsa Dadar , Simon Ducharme , D. Louis Collins

Time-dependent data collected in studies of Alzheimer's disease usually has missing and irregularly sampled data points. For this reason time series methods which assume regular sampling cannot be applied directly to the data without a…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-03-06 Paul Moore , Terry Lyons , John Gallacher

Pattern recognition methods using neuroimaging data for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease have been the subject of extensive research in recent years. In this paper, we use deep learning methods, and in particular sparse autoencoders and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-02-10 Adrien Payan , Giovanni Montana

Computational models of neurodegeneration aim to emulate the evolving pattern of pathology in the brain during neurodegenerative disease, such as Alzheimer's disease. Previous studies have made specific choices on the mechanisms of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-11 Tiantian He , Elinor Thompson , Anna Schroder , Neil P. Oxtoby , Ahmed Abdulaal , Frederik Barkhof , Daniel C. Alexander

Introduction: It is challenging at baseline to predict when and which individuals who meet criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will ultimately progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. Methods: A deep learning method is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-17 Hongming Li , Mohamad Habes , David A. Wolk , Yong Fan

The uncertainty of clinical examinations frequently leads to irregular observation intervals in longitudinal imaging data, posing challenges for modeling disease progression.Most existing imaging-based disease prediction models operate in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Xin Hong , Ying Shi , Yinhao Li , Yen-Wei Chen

In this article, we present a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting a latent health state from longitudinal clinical measurements. Model development is motivated by the need to integrate multiple sources of data to improve clinical…

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-30 Razvan V. Marinescu , Neil P. Oxtoby , Alexandra L. Young , Esther E. Bron , Arthur W. Toga , Michael W. Weiner , Frederik Barkhof , Nick C. Fox , Arman Eshaghi , Tina Toni , Marcin Salaterski , Veronika Lunina , Manon Ansart , Stanley Durrleman , Pascal Lu , Samuel Iddi , Dan Li , Wesley K. Thompson , Michael C. Donohue , Aviv Nahon , Yarden Levy , Dan Halbersberg , Mariya Cohen , Huiling Liao , Tengfei Li , Kaixian Yu , Hongtu Zhu , Jose G. Tamez-Pena , Aya Ismail , Timothy Wood , Hector Corrada Bravo , Minh Nguyen , Nanbo Sun , Jiashi Feng , B. T. Thomas Yeo , Gang Chen , Ke Qi , Shiyang Chen , Deqiang Qiu , Ionut Buciuman , Alex Kelner , Raluca Pop , Denisa Rimocea , Mostafa M. Ghazi , Mads Nielsen , Sebastien Ourselin , Lauge Sorensen , Vikram Venkatraghavan , Keli Liu , Christina Rabe , Paul Manser , Steven M. Hill , James Howlett , Zhiyue Huang , Steven Kiddle , Sach Mukherjee , Anais Rouanet , Bernd Taschler , Brian D. M. Tom , Simon R. White , Noel Faux , Suman Sedai , Javier de Velasco Oriol , Edgar E. V. Clemente , Karol Estrada , Leon Aksman , Andre Altmann , Cynthia M. Stonnington , Yalin Wang , Jianfeng Wu , Vivek Devadas , Clementine Fourrier , Lars Lau Raket , Aristeidis Sotiras , Guray Erus , Jimit Doshi , Christos Davatzikos , Jacob Vogel , Andrew Doyle , Angela Tam , Alex Diaz-Papkovich , Emmanuel Jammeh , Igor Koval , Paul Moore , Terry J. Lyons , John Gallacher , Jussi Tohka , Robert Ciszek , Bruno Jedynak , Kruti Pandya , Murat Bilgel , William Engels , Joseph Cole , Polina Golland , Stefan Klein , Daniel C. Alexander

The rise of Alzheimers Disease worldwide has prompted a search for efficient tools which can be used to predict deterioration in cognitive decline leading to dementia. In this paper, we explore the potential of survival machine learning as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Henry Musto , Daniel Stamate , Ida Pu , Daniel Stahl