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Based on It\^o semimartingale models, several studies have proposed methods for forecasting intraday volatility using high-frequency financial data. These approaches typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions and are often…
The dynamics of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix of multivariate financial time series is explored by examination of the eigenvalue spectrum over sliding time windows. Empirical results for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50…
In this paper, we are interested in testing if the volatility process is constant or not during a given time span by using high-frequency data with the presence of jumps and microstructure noise. Based on estimators of integrated volatility…
Because of the theoretical challenges posed by the Efficient Market Hypothesis to technical analysis, the effectiveness of technical indicators in high-frequency trading remains inadequately explored, particularly at the minute-level…
According to recent findings [1,2], empirical covariance matrices deduced from financial return series contain such a high amount of noise that, apart from a few large eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenvectors, their structure can…
We introduce a statistical test for simultaneous jumps in the price of a financial asset and its volatility process. The proposed test is based on high-frequency data and is robust to market microstructure frictions. For the test, local…
Monthly and weekly economic indicators are often taken to be the largest common factor estimated from high and low frequency data, either separately or jointly. To incorporate mixed frequency information without directly modeling them, we…
The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…
This article considers a novel and widely applicable approach to modeling high-dimensional dependent data when a large number of explanatory variables are available and the signal-to-noise ratio is low. We postulate that a $p$-dimensional…
This paper addresses the problem of output-feedback covariance steering for stochastic, discrete-time, linear, time-invariant systems without knowledge of the system model. We employ a controllable, non-minimal state representation…
We consider the estimation of approximate factor models for time series data, where strong serial and cross-sectional correlations amongst the idiosyncratic component are present. This setting comes up naturally in many applications, but…
We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday returns are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov which depends also…
Continuous time network data have been successfully modeled by multivariate counting processes, in which the intensity function is characterized by covariate information. However, degree heterogeneity has not been incorporated into the…
Standard methods and theories in finance can be ill-equipped to capture highly non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems based on large-scale datasets, with deep learning offering a way to gain insights into correlations in…
Financial stock returns correlations have been studied in the prism of random matrix theory, to distinguish the signal from the "noise". Eigenvalues of the matrix that are above the rescaled Marchenko Pastur distribution can be interpreted…
We show how pre-averaging can be applied to the problem of measuring the ex-post covariance of financial asset returns under microstructure noise and non-synchronous trading. A pre-averaged realised covariance is proposed, and we present an…
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for…
Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of selected portfolios among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al (2008). The required high-dimensional…
A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…
We study the rank of the instantaneous or spot covariance matrix $\Sigma_X(t)$ of a multidimensional continuous semi-martingale $X(t)$. Given high-frequency observations $X(i/n)$, $i=0,\ldots,n$, we test the null hypothesis…