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Cross-classified data frequently arise in scientific fields such as education, healthcare, and social sciences. A common modeling strategy is to introduce crossed random effects within a regression framework. However, this approach often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Shota Takeishi , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Phase-type (PH) distributions are a popular tool for the analysis of univariate risks in numerous actuarial applications. Their multivariate counterparts (MPH$^\ast$), however, have not seen such a proliferation, due to lack of explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-23 Martin Bladt

We develop dependent hierarchical normalized random measures and apply them to dynamic topic modeling. The dependency arises via superposition, subsampling and point transition on the underlying Poisson processes of these measures. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-22 Changyou Chen , Nan Ding , Wray Buntine

In this paper, we develop a method to model and estimate several, _dependent_ count processes, using granular data. Specifically, we develop a multivariate Cox process with shot noise intensities to jointly model the arrival process of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-19 Benjamin Avanzi , Gregory Clive Taylor , Bernard Wong , Xinda Yang

Non-Gaussian outcomes are often modeled using members of the so-called exponential family. Notorious members are the Bernoulli model for binary data, leading to logistic regression, and the Poisson model for count data, leading to Poisson…

Many experiments are concerned with the comparison of counts between treatment groups. Examples include the number of successful signups in conversion rate experiments, or the number of errors produced by software versions in canary…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-14 Michael Lindon , Alan Malek

An important feature of linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models is that the conditional mean of the response given the random effects, after transformed by a link function, is linearly related to the fixed covariate effects…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-29 Mingyan Huang , Daowen Zhang

We propose a multivariate framework for modeling dependent default times that extends the classical Cox process by incorporating both common and idiosyncratic shocks. Our construction uses c\`adl\`ag, increasing processes to model…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Djibril Gueye , Alejandra Quintos

In bricklayers' model, which is a generalization of the misanthrope processes, we show that a nontrivial class of product distributions is closed under the time-evolution of the process. This class also includes measures fitting to shock…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-09-12 Marton Balazs

This article extends the autoregressive count time series model class by allowing for a model with regimes, that is, some of the parameters in the model depend on the state of an unobserved Markov chain. We develop a quasi-maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-26 Geir D. Berentsen , Jan Bulla , Antonello Maruotti , Bård Støve

The collective risk model (CRM) for frequency and severity is an important tool for retail insurance ratemaking, macro-level catastrophic risk forecasting, as well as operational risk in banking regulation. This model, which is initially…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-20 Jae Youn Ahn , Himchan Jeong , Yang Lu

We propose a general modeling framework for marked Poisson processes observed over time or space. The modeling approach exploits the connection of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process intensity with a density function. Nonparametric Dirichlet…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-02 Matthew A. Taddy , Athanasios Kottas

Polymers consisting of more than one type of monomer, known as copolymers, are vital to both living and synthetic systems. Copolymerisation has been studied theoretically in a number of contexts, often by considering a Markov process in…

Considering two independent Poisson processes, we address the question of testing equality of their respective intensities. We first propose single tests whose test statistics are U-statistics based on general kernel functions. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-15 Magalie Fromont , Béatrice Laurent , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret

Data on count processes arise in a variety of applications, including longitudinal, spatial and imaging studies measuring count responses. The literature on statistical models for dependent count data is dominated by models built from…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-08 Antonio Canale , David B. Dunson

This paper develops asymptotics and approximations for ruin probabilities in a multivariate risk setting. We consider a model in which the individual reserve processes are driven by a common Markovian environmental process. We subsequently…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-24 G. A. Delsing , M. R. H. Mandjes , P. J. C. Spreij , E. M. M. Winands

Conditional copula models allow dependence structures to vary with observed covariates while preserving a separation between marginal behavior and association. We study the uniform asymptotic behavior of kernel-weighted local likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Mathias Nthiani Muia

Standard count models such as the Poisson and Negative Binomial models often fail to capture the large proportion of zero claims commonly observed in insurance data. To address such issue of excessive zeros, zero-inflated and hurdle models…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-03 Hyemin Lee , Dohee Kim , Banghee So , Jae Youn Ahn

In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Pepa Ramírez-Cobo , Emilio Carrizosa , Rosa Elvira Lillo

The collective risk model differentiates usually between claims frequencies (and their distribution) and claim sizes (and their distribution). For the claims frequencies typically classical discrete distributions are considered, such as…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-12 Dietmar Pfeifer