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The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

We study learning problems in which the conditional distribution of the output given the input varies as a function of additional task variables. In varying-coefficient models with Gaussian process priors, a Gaussian process generates the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-10-15 Matthias Bussas , Christoph Sawade , Tobias Scheffer , Niels Landwehr

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-29 Charles Gadd , Sara Wade , Akeel Shah , Dimitris Grammatopoulos

To reduce the curse of dimensionality for Gaussian processes (GP), they can be decomposed into a Gaussian Process Network (GPN) of coupled subprocesses with lower dimensionality. In some cases, intermediate observations are available within…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Saksham Kiroriwal , Julius Pfrommer , Jürgen Beyerer

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-17 Terrance Savitsky , Marina Vannucci , Naijun Sha

A variational inference-based framework for training a multi-output Gaussian process latent variable model, specifically tailored to the tails-up spatio-temporal stream network, is developed. Training, given a censored observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Marno Basson , Tobias M. Louw , Theresa R. Smith

We investigate the frequentist guarantees of the variational sparse Gaussian process regression model. In the theoretical analysis, we focus on the variational approach with spectral features as inducing variables. We derive guarantees and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-29 Dennis Nieman , Botond Szabo , Harry van Zanten

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Xuhui Fan , Edwin V. Bonilla , Terence J. O'Kane , Scott A. Sisson

Panel count data describes aggregated counts of recurrent events observed at discrete time points. To understand dynamics of health behaviors, the field of quantitative behavioral research has evolved to increasingly rely upon panel count…

Practical inference procedures for quantile regression models of panel data have been a pervasive concern in empirical work, and can be especially challenging when the panel is observed over many time periods and temporal dependence needs…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-25 Antonio F. Galvao , Carlos Lamarche , Thomas Parker

Sparse variational approximations allow for principled and scalable inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. In settings where several GPs are part of the generative model, theses GPs are a posteriori coupled. For many applications such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-30 Vincent Adam

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Motivated by a large ground-level ozone dataset, we propose a new computationally efficient additive approximate Gaussian process. The proposed method incorporates a computational-complexity-reduction method and a separable covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-10 Pulong Ma , Bledar A. Konomi , Emily L. Kang

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

The accuracy of Bayesian inference can be negatively affected by the use of inaccurate forward models. In the case of gravitational-wave inference, accurate but computationally expensive waveform models are sometimes substituted with faster…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-04-02 Miaoxin Liu , Xiao-Dong Li , Alvin J. K. Chua

Large-scale Gaussian process models are becoming increasingly important and widely used in many areas, such as, computer experiments, stochastic optimization via simulation, and machine learning using Gaussian processes. The standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Yongxiang Li , Qiang Zhou , Kwok Leung Tsui , Javier Cabrera

A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Bingjing Tang , Julia Palacios

We develop a scalable deep non-parametric generative model by augmenting deep Gaussian processes with a recognition model. Inference is performed in a novel scalable variational framework where the variational posterior distributions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-02 Zhenwen Dai , Andreas Damianou , Javier González , Neil Lawrence

When partitioning workflows in realistic scenarios, the knowledge of the processing units is often vague or unknown. A naive approach to addressing this issue is to perform many controlled experiments for different workloads, each…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2015-11-03 Freddy C. Chua , Bernardo A. Huberman