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In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-23 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth

The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 Linda Mhalla , Thomas Opitz , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

We evaluate the dependence among the margins of a random vector with Multivariate Extreme Value distribution throughout the expected value of a range and relate this coefficient of dependence with the multivariate tail dependence. Its…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-26 Helena Ferreira

One of the central objectives of modern risk management is to find a set of risks where the probability of multiple simultaneous catastrophic events is negligible. That is, risks are taken only when their joint behavior seems sufficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Jaakko Lehtomaa , Sidney Resnick

We develop an asymptotic theory for extremes in decomposable graphical models by presenting results applicable to a range of extremal dependence types. Specifically, we investigate the weak limit of the distribution of suitably normalised…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-13 Adrian Casey , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-11 Davide Lauria , Svetlozar T. Rachev , A. Alexandre Trindade

The multidimensional distributions with heavy tails attracted recently the attention of several papers on Applied Probability. However, the most of the works of the last decades are focused on multivariate regular variation, while the rest…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-21 Ning Sun , Chen Yang , Ričardas Zitikis

The residual dependence index of bivariate Gaussian distributions is determined by the correlation coefficient. This tail index is of certain statistical importance when extremes and related rare events of bivariate samples with asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-14 Enkelejd Hashorva

In the world of multivariate extremes, estimation of the dependence structure still presents a challenge and an interesting problem. A procedure for the bivariate case is presented that opens the road to a similar way of handling the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Miriam Hägele , Jaakko Lehtomaa

We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-10 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier

Inference over tails is performed by applying only the results of extreme value theory. Whilst such theory is well defined and flexible enough in the univariate case, multivariate inferential methods often require the imposition of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-11 Manuele Leonelli , Dani Gamerman

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-06 Sebastian Engelke , Jevgenijs Ivanovs

The goal of this paper is two-fold: 1. We review classical and recent measures of serial extremal dependence in a strictly stationary time series as well as their estimation. 2. We discuss recent concepts of heavy-tailed time series,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-27 Richard A. Davis , Thomas Mikosch , Yuwei Zhao

A network evolution with predicted tail and extremal indices of PageRank and the Max-Linear Model used as node influence indices in random graphs is considered. The tail index shows a heaviness of the distribution tail. The extremal index…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Natalia Markovich

We study the tail asymptotics of the sum of two heavy-tailed random variables. The dependence structure is modeled by copulas with the so-called tail order property. Examples are presented to illustrate the approach. Further for each…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-15 Fan Yang , Yi Zhang

Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today's global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-06 Daniela Castro Camilo , Miguel de Carvalho , Jennifer Wadsworth

Identifying groups of variables that may be large simultaneously amounts to finding out which joint tail dependence coefficients of a multivariate distribution are positive. The asymptotic distribution of a vector of nonparametric,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-28 Maël Chiapino , Anne Sabourin , Johan Segers

Let $X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}$ be $n$ real-valued dependent random variables. With motivation from Mitra and Resnick (2009), we derive the tail asymptotic expansion for the weighted sum of order statistics $X_{1:n}\leq \cdots \leq X_{n:n}$ of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-07 Enkelejd Hashorva , Jinzhi Li