Related papers: Statistical tests for evaluating an earthquake pre…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…
Statistical methods are based on model assumptions, and it is statistical folklore that a method's model assumptions should be checked before applying it. This can be formally done by running one or more misspecification tests of model…
It is well-known that a quantum measurement can enhance the transition probability between two quantum states. Such a measurement operates after preparation of the initial state and before postselecting for the final state. Here we analyze…
We examine the precursory behavior of geoelectric signals before large earthquakes by means of an algorithm including an alarm-based model and binary classification. This algorithm, introduced originally by Chen and Chen [Nat. Hazards., 84,…
This paper proposes novel tests for the absence of jumps in a univariate semimartingale and for the absence of common jumps in a bivariate semimartingale. Our methods rely on ratio statistics of power variations based on irregular…
Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…
In many fields of research null hypothesis significance tests and p values are the accepted way of assessing the degree of certainty with which research results can be extrapolated beyond the sample studied. However, there are very serious…
Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…
The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous…
Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur…
Algorithms are now routinely used to make consequential decisions that affect human lives. Examples include college admissions, medical interventions or law enforcement. While algorithms empower us to harness all information hidden in vast…
We describe a statistical hypothesis test for the presence of a signal based on the likelihood ratio statistic. We derive the test for a case of interest and also show that for that case the test works very well, even far out in the tails…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
The problem of testing for the parametric form of the conditional variance is considered in a fully nonparametric regression model. A test statistic based on a weighted $L_2$-distance between the empirical characteristic functions of…
We consider the conditional randomization test as a way to account for covariate imbalance in randomized experiments. The test accounts for covariate imbalance by comparing the observed test statistic to the null distribution of the test…
In earthquake source inversions aimed at understanding diverse fault activities on earthquake faults using seismic observation data, uncertainties in velocity structure models are typically not considered. As a result, biases and…
Interpretation of the nonclassical total probability formula arising in some quantum experiments is provided based on stochastic models described by means of a sequence of random vectors changing in the measurement procedures.
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
A class of nonparametric two-sample tests has been proposed in this article. As a generalization of the original \v{S}id\'aks' test, the proposed test statistic is developed as the sum of the maximal precedence and maximal exceedance…
Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing is a dominant framework for conducting statistical analysis across the sciences. There remains considerable debate as to whether, and under what circumstances, evidence can be said to be confirmatory of a…