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The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-19 Guillermo Terrén-Serrano , Manel Martínez-Ramón

Regional solar power forecasting, which involves predicting the total power generation from all rooftop photovoltaic systems in a region holds significant importance for various stakeholders in the energy sector. However, the vast amount of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Maneesha Perera , Julian De Hoog , Kasun Bandara , Damith Senanayake , Saman Halgamuge

This paper provides a benchmark to evaluate operational day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts of Global Forecast System (GFS) for solar energy applications in China. First, GFS day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts are validated…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-06 Yue Zhang , Yanbo Shen , Xiangao Xia , Guangyu Shi

Reliable forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is essential for mitigating the variability of solar energy in power grids. This study presents a comprehensive benchmark of ten deep learning architectures for short-term (1-hour…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Tin Hoang

As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Timothy Cargan , Dario Landa-Silva , Isaac Triguero

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-18 Yiyan Li , Lidong Song , Si Zhang , Laura Kraus , Taylor Adcox , Roger Willardson , Abhishek Komandur , Ning Lu

In the present work, we collect solar irradiance and atmospheric condition data from several products, obtained from both numerical models (ERA5 and NORA3) and satellite observations (CMSAF-SARAH3). We then train simple supervised Machine…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-23 J Rabault , ML Sætra , A Dobler , S Eastwood , E Berge

Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale. This paper presents a pioneering approach to solar…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-14 Alberto Carpentieri , Jussi Leinonen , Jeff Adie , Boris Bonev , Doris Folini , Farah Hariri

Solar based electricity generations have experienced strong and impactful growth in recent years. The regulation, scheduling, dispatching, and unit commitment of intermittent solar power is dependent on the accuracy of the forecasting…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-30 Shaktinarayana Mishra , Lokanath Tripathy , Prachitara Satapathy , P. K. Dash , Nitasha Sahani

The integration of renewable resources has increased in power generation as a means to reduce the fossil fuel usage and mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. However, renewables like solar energy are stochastic in nature due to…

This paper addresses the pressing need for an accurate solar energy prediction model, which is crucial for efficient grid integration. We explore the influence of the Air Quality Index and weather features on solar energy generation,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Arjun Shah , Varun Viswanath , Kashish Gandhi , Nilesh Madhukar Patil

Considering the grid manager's point of view, needs in terms of prediction of intermittent energy like the photovoltaic resource can be distinguished according to the considered horizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-07-24 Cyril Voyant , Christophe Paoli , Marc Muselli , Marie Laure Nivet

Accurate Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasting is critical for grid stability, particularly in arid regions characterized by rapid aerosol fluctuations. While recent trends favor computationally expensive Transformer-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Mohammed Ezzaldin Babiker Abdullah , Rufaidah Abdallah Ibrahim Mohammed

Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic power is essential for reliable grid integration, yet remains difficult due to highly variable irradiance, complex meteorological drivers, site geography, and device-specific behavior. Although…

In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-03 Benedikt Schulz , Mehrez El Ayari , Sebastian Lerch , Sándor Baran

Power systems engineers are actively developing larger power plants out of photovoltaics imposing some major challenges which include its intermittent power generation and its poor dispatchability. The issue is that PV is a variable…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-17 Hugo Riggs , Shahid Tufail , Mohd Tariq , Arif Sarwat

Utilizing solar energy to meet space heating and domestic hot water demand is very efficient (in terms of environmental footprint as well as cost), but in order to ensure that user demand is entirely covered throughout the year needs to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Tatiana Boura , Natalia Koliou , George Meramveliotakis , Stasinos Konstantopoulos , George Kosmadakis

We develop a mixed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24-hour time window 0$\sim$24, 6$\sim$30, 12$\sim$36 and 24$\sim$48 hours ahead of time using 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-26 Zhenbang Jiao , Hu Sun , Xiantong Wang , Ward Manchester , Tamas Gombosi , Alfred Hero , Yang Chen

The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-13 Daniel E. da Silva , Yash Parlikar , Shaela I. Jones , Charles N. Arge

Accurate day-ahead forecasts of solar irradiance are required for the large-scale integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems into the power grid. However, current forecasting solutions lack the temporal and spatial resolution required…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Baptiste Schubnel , Jelena Simeunović , Corentin Tissier , Pierre-Jean Alet , Rafael E. Carrillo