Related papers: Stochastic Model of SIR Epidemic Modelling
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
Dynamic models - often deterministic in nature - were used to estimate the basic reproductive number, R_0, of the 2014-5 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic outbreak in West Africa. Estimates of R_0 were then used to project the likelihood…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
The COVID-19 pandemic has had worldwide devastating effects on human lives, highlighting the need for tools to predict its development. Dynamics of such public-health threats can often be efficiently analysed through simple models that help…
We study the Suscectible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model on deterministic networks. For connected but otherwise general interaction patterns and heterogeneous recovery and loss-of-immunity rates, we identify a…
Metapopulation epidemic models describe epidemic dynamics in networks of spatially distant patches connected with pathways for migration of individuals. In the present study, we deal with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
In this work we study the stability properties of the equilibrium points of deterministic epidemic models with nonconstant population size. Models with nonconstant population have been studied in the past only in particular cases, two of…
We study the spreading of a disease on top of structured scale-free networks recently introduced. By means of numerical simulations we analyze the SIS and the SIR models. Our results show that when the connectivity fluctuations of the…
We show how the standard field theoretical language based on creation and annihilation operators may be used for a straightforward derivation of closed master equations describing the population dynamics of multivariate stochastic epidemic…
Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…
In this paper, we are concerned with the stochastic susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on the complete graph with $n$ vertices. This model has two parameters, which are the infection rate and the recovery rate. By…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…
A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…
Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that…
In this project, identifiability, observability and uncertainty properties of the deterministic and Chain Binomial stochastic SIR, SEIR and SEIAR epidemiological models are studied. Techniques for modeling overdispersion are investigated…
We consider an individual-based SIR stochastic epidemic model in continuous space. The evolution of the epidemic involves the rates of infection and cure of individuals. We assume that individuals move randomly on the two-dimensional torus…