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A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…
Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) are well-established probabilistic models. While finite Markov models are well-understood, analysing their infinite counterparts remains a significant challenge. Decisiveness has proven to…
In this paper we consider stopping problems for continuous-time Markov chains under a general risk-sensitive optimization criterion for problems with finite and infinite time horizon. More precisely our aim is to maximize the certainty…
We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap…
Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…
In most real cases transition probabilities between operational modes of Markov jump linear systems cannot be computed exactly and are time-varying. We take into account this aspect by considering Markov jump linear systems where the…
In many complex statistical models maximum likelihood estimators cannot be calculated. In the paper we solve this problem using Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation of the true likelihood. In the main result we prove asymptotic normality…
Questions are posed regarding the influence that the column sums of the transition probabilities of a stochastic matrix (with row sums all one) have on the stationary distribution, the mean first passage times and the Kemeny constant of the…
The effect of perturbations of parameters for uniquely convergent imprecise Markov chains is studied. We provide the maximal distance between the distributions of original and perturbed chain and maximal degree of imprecision, given the…
We present a general method to derive the metastable behavior of weakly mixing Markov chains. This approach is based on properties of the resolvent equations and can be applied to metastable dynamics which do not satisfy the mixing…
We study sample-path large deviations for L\'evy processes and random walks with heavy-tailed jump-size distributions that are of Weibull type. Our main results include an extended form of an LDP (large deviations principle) in the $J_1$…
We prove a sample path Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for a class of jump processes whose rates are not uniformly Lipschitz continuous in phase space. Building on it we further establish the corresponding Wentzell-Freidlin (W-F) (infinite…
We obtain Rosenthal-type inequalities with sharp constants for moments of sums of independent random variables which are mixtures of a fixed distribution. We also identify extremisers in log-concave settings when the moments of summands are…
The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…
The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence…
We investigate the use of a certain class of functional inequalities known as weak Poincar\'e inequalities to bound convergence of Markov chains to equilibrium. We show that this enables the straightforward and transparent derivation of…
We consider Markov chains on general state spaces in stationary random environment which are defined by a random mapping that is contractive up to a bounded perturbation. We prove their convergence to a limiting law, providing convergence…
Computing optimal conditional reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is tractable by a reduction to reachability probabilities. Yet, this reduction yields cyclic, challenging MDPs that are often notoriously hard to…
There is a well established theory that links semi-Markov chains having Mittag-Leffler waiting times to time-fractional equations. We here go beyond the semi-Markov setting, by defining some non-Markovian chains whose waiting times,…
Consider a finite irreducible Markov chain with invariant probability $\pi$. Define its inverse communication speed as the expectation to go from x to y, when x, y are sampled independently according to $\pi$. In the discrete time setting…