Related papers: Markov Switch Smooth Transition HYGARCH Model: Sta…
In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident injury severities. These models assume Markov switching in time between two unobserved states of roadway safety. The states…
We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…
In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…
There are multiple ways in which a stochastic system can be out of statistical equilibrium. It might be subject to time-varying forcing; or be in a transient phase on its way towards equilibrium; it might even be in equilibrium without us…
Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a…
The variational principle for conformational dynamics has enabled the systematic construction of Markov state models through the optimization of hyperparameters by approximating the transfer operator. In this note we discuss why lag time of…
Aiming to generate realistic synthetic times series of the bivariate process of daily mean temperature and precipitations, we introduce a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model. The non-homogeneity lies in periodic transition probabilities…
We consider the problem of global stability of nonlinear sampled-data systems. Sampled-data systems are a form of hybrid model which arises when discrete measurements and updates are used to control continuous-time plants. In this paper, we…
Recent financial disasters have emphasised the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial market. The ability of econometric models to predict extreme…
This paper investigates the stability of switched linear systems whose switching signal is modeled as a stochastic process called a regenerative process. We show that the mean stability of such a switched system is characterized by the…
Data collected from wearable devices and smartphones can shed light on an individual's pattern of behavioral and circadian routine. Phone use can be modeled as alternating event process, between the state of active use and the state of…
We investigate absorption, i.e., almost sure convergence to an absorbing state, in time-varying (non-homogeneous) discrete-time Markov chains with finite state space. We consider systems that can switch among a finite set of transition…
Previous research has found that high-frequency traders will vary the bid or offer price rapidly over periods of milliseconds. This is a benefit to fast traders who can time their trades with microsecond precision, however it is a cost to…
Transitions between steady dynamical regimes in diverse applications are often modelled using discontinuities, but doing so introduces problems of uniqueness. No matter how quickly a transition occurs, its inner workings can affect the…
Switching ARMA models greatly enhance the standard linear models to the extent that different ARMA model is allowed in a different regime, and the regime switching is typically assumed a Markov chain on the finite states of potential…
Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…
We propose an analytic approach for the steady-state dynamics of Markov processes on locally tree-like graphs. It is based on time-translation invariant probability distributions for edge trajectories, which we encode in terms of infinite…
With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical…
We introduce a statistical mechanics formalism for the study of constrained graph evolution as a Markovian stochastic process, in analogy with that available for spin systems, deriving its basic properties and highlighting the role of the…
We study the stability of a Markovian model of electricity production and consumption that incorporates production volatility due to renewables and uncertainty about actual demand versus planned production. We assume that the energy…