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Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-22 Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani , James Weimer , Insup Lee

Classical supervised learning produces unreliable models when training and target distributions differ, with most existing solutions requiring samples from the target domain. We propose a proactive approach which learns a relationship in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-01 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

Symbolic regression algorithms search a space of mathematical expressions for formulas that explain given data. Transformer-based models have emerged as a promising, scalable approach shifting the expensive combinatorial search to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Henrik Voigt , Paul Kahlmeyer , Kai Lawonn , Michael Habeck , Joachim Giesen

We are concerned with the vulnerability of computer vision models to distributional shifts. We formulate a combinatorial optimization problem that allows evaluating the regions in the image space where a given model is more vulnerable, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-21 Riccardo Volpi , Vittorio Murino

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Hongkang Yang

Methods of transfer learning try to combine knowledge from several related tasks (or domains) to improve performance on a test task. Inspired by causal methodology, we relax the usual covariate shift assumption and assume that it holds true…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-25 Mateo Rojas-Carulla , Bernhard Schölkopf , Richard Turner , Jonas Peters

With the increasing penetration of machine learning applications in critical decision-making areas, calls for algorithmic fairness are more prominent. Although there have been various modalities to improve algorithmic fairness through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Zhihao Hu , Yiran Xu , Mengnan Du , Jindong Gu , Xinmei Tian , Fengxiang He

Practitioners often face the challenge of deploying prediction models in new environments with shifted distributions of covariates and responses. With observational data, such shifts are often driven by unobserved confounding, and can in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Kulunu Dharmakeerthi , YoonHaeng Hur , Tengyuan Liang

ML models deployed in production often have to face unknown domain changes, fundamentally different from their training settings. Performance prediction models carry out the crucial task of measuring the impact of these changes on model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Simona Maggio , Victor Bouvier , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Learning guarantees often rely on assumptions of i.i.d. data, which will likely be violated in practice once predictors are deployed to perform real-world tasks. Domain adaptation approaches thus appeared as a useful framework yielding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Joao Monteiro , Xavier Gibert , Jianqiao Feng , Vincent Dumoulin , Dar-Shyang Lee

In transfer learning, the learner leverages auxiliary data to improve generalization on a main task. However, the precise theoretical understanding of when and how auxiliary data help remains incomplete. We provide new insights on this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Meitong Liu , Christopher Jung , Rui Li , Xue Feng , Han Zhao

That shared features between train and test data are required for generalisation in artificial neural networks has been a common assumption of both proponents and critics of these models. Here, we show that convolutional architectures avoid…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-07-15 Jeff Mitchell , Jeffrey S. Bowers

Machine learning models are often trained on data from one distribution and deployed on others. So it becomes important to design models that are robust to distribution shifts. Most of the existing work focuses on optimizing for either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Harvineet Singh , Shalmali Joshi , Finale Doshi-Velez , Himabindu Lakkaraju

As machine learning systems get widely adopted for high-stake decisions, quantifying uncertainty over predictions becomes crucial. While modern neural networks are making remarkable gains in terms of predictive accuracy, characterizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-14 Melanie F. Pradier , Weiwei Pan , Jiayu Yao , Soumya Ghosh , Finale Doshi-velez

In machine learning, if the training data is an unbiased sample of an underlying distribution, then the learned classification function will make accurate predictions for new samples. However, if the training data is not an unbiased sample,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-15 Wouter M. Kouw , Marco Loog

As input data distributions evolve, the predictive performance of machine learning models tends to deteriorate. In practice, new input data tend to come without target labels. Then, state-of-the-art techniques model input data distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Carlos Mougan , Klaus Broelemann , David Masip , Gjergji Kasneci , Thanassis Thiropanis , Steffen Staab

Time series prediction is often complicated by distribution shift which demands adaptive models to accommodate time-varying distributions. We frame time series prediction under distribution shift as a weighted empirical risk minimisation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Stefanos Bennett , Jase Clarkson

Learning policies which are robust to changes in the environment are critical for real world deployment of Reinforcement Learning agents. They are also necessary for achieving good generalization across environment shifts. We focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Anuj Mahajan , Amy Zhang

Ensuring robust model performance in diverse real-world scenarios requires addressing generalizability across domains with covariate shifts. However, no formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Daniel de Vassimon Manela , Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans