Related papers: Learning Causally-Generated Stationary Time Series

Recent advances in probabilistic generative modeling have motivated learning Structural Causal Models (SCM) from observational datasets using deep conditional generative models, also known as Deep Structural Causal Models (DSCM). If…

One major drawback of state-of-the-art artificial intelligence is its lack of explainability. One approach to solve the problem is taking causality into account. Causal mechanisms can be described by structural causal models. In this work,…

In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…

The Dynamical Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models provide an elegant non-parametric framework for learning the low dimensional representations of the high-dimensional time-series. Real world observational studies, however, are often…

Gaussian processes (GP) for machine learning have been studied systematically over the past two decades and they are by now widely used in a number of diverse applications. However, GP kernel design and the associated hyper-parameter…

In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to as…

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to emulate propagation uncertainty in computer experiments. GP emulation sits comfortably within an analytically tractable Bayesian framework. Apart from propagating uncertainty of the input…

Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) is an umbrella term for machine learning methods that formalize the data-generation process as a structural causal model (SCM). This perspective enables us to reason about the effects of changes to this…

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis. However, the reliance of diffusion-based…

Latent confounders---unobserved variables that influence both treatment and outcome---can bias estimates of causal effects. In some cases, these confounders are shared across observations, e.g. all students taking a course are influenced by…

Three distinct phenomena complicate statistical causal analysis: latent common causes, causal cycles, and latent selection. Foundational works on Structural Causal Models (SCMs), e.g., Bongers et al. (2021, Ann. Stat., 49(5): 2885-2915),…

This paper considers the problem of estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with an additive stationary gaussian noise having unknown correlation function. A general model selection procedure on the basis of…

Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms. We propose Distributional Causal…

The rapid advancement of generative models has increased the demand for generated image detectors capable of generalizing across diverse and evolving generation techniques. However, existing methods, including those leveraging pre-trained…

We study the statistical properties of overdamped particles driven by two cross-correlated multiplicative Gaussian white noises in a time-dependent environment. Using the Langevin and Fokker-Planck approaches, we derive the exact…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pre-training on…

Conditional density estimation is complicated by multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled nonparametric framework with calibrated uncertainty, but standard GP regression is…

We discuss the detection of gravitational-wave backgrounds in the context of Bayesian inference and suggest a practical definition of what it means for a signal to be considered stochastic---namely, that the Bayesian evidence favors a…