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With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Regularization plays a vital role in the context of deep learning by preventing deep neural networks from the danger of overfitting. This paper proposes a novel deep learning regularization method named as DL-Reg, which carefully reduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Maryam Dialameh , Ali Hamzeh , Hossein Rahmani

The role of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning has become crucial with growing use of predictive models in high-risk applications. Though a large class of methods exists for measuring deep uncertainties, in practice, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Bindya Venkatesh , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

Despite achieving enormous success in predictive accuracy for visual classification problems, deep neural networks (DNNs) suffer from providing overconfident probabilities on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Yet, accurate uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Zongyao Lyu , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-10 Shengjia Zhao , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

In this paper we consider Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with a smooth activation function as surrogates for high-dimensional functions that are somewhat smooth but costly to evaluate. We consider the standard (non-periodic) DNNs as well as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-04 Alexander Keller , Frances Y. Kuo , Dirk Nuyens , Ian H. Sloan

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Deep learning classifiers are assisting humans in making decisions and hence the user's trust in these models is of paramount importance. Trust is often a function of constant behavior. From an AI model perspective it means given the same…

There is growing body of learning problems for which it is natural to organize the parameters into matrix, so as to appropriately regularize the parameters under some matrix norm (in order to impose some more sophisticated prior knowledge).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-10-19 Sham M. Kakade , Shai Shalev-Shwartz , Ambuj Tewari

This paper analyzes regularization terms proposed recently for improving the adversarial robustness of deep neural networks (DNNs), from a theoretical point of view. Specifically, we study possible connections between several effective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-07 Yiwen Guo , Long Chen , Yurong Chen , Changshui Zhang

Uncertainty quantification in deep learning is crucial for safe and reliable decision-making in downstream tasks. Existing methods quantify uncertainty at the last layer or other approximations of the network which may miss some sources of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

In an attempt to better understand generalization in deep learning, we study several possible explanations. We show that implicit regularization induced by the optimization method is playing a key role in generalization and success of deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-11 Behnam Neyshabur

Several works have shown that the regularization mechanisms underlying deep neural networks' generalization performances are still poorly understood. In this paper, we hypothesize that deep neural networks are regularized through their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-12 Carbonnelle Simon , Christophe De Vleeschouwer

In classification applications, we often want probabilistic predictions to reflect confidence or uncertainty. Dropout, a commonly used training technique, has recently been linked to Bayesian inference, yielding an efficient way to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Zhilu Zhang , Adrian V. Dalca , Mert R. Sabuncu

We investigate the generalizability of deep learning based on the sensitivity to input perturbation. We hypothesize that the high sensitivity to the perturbation of data degrades the performance on it. To reduce the sensitivity to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-01 Yuichi Yoshida , Takeru Miyato

Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the over confidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been over looked…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Yuheng Jia , Jianhong Cheng , Hui Liu , Junhui Hou

Deep models have advanced prediction in many domains, but their lack of interpretability remains a key barrier to the adoption in many real world applications. There exists a large body of work aiming to help humans understand these black…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Mike Wu , Sonali Parbhoo , Michael C. Hughes , Volker Roth , Finale Doshi-Velez

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Meelis Kull , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Markus Kängsepp , Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Peter Flach

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-14 Shengjia Zhao , Michael P. Kim , Roshni Sahoo , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon