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Tail dependence plays an essential role in the characterization of joint extreme events in multivariate data. However, most standard tail dependence parameters assume continuous margins. This note presents a form of tail dependence suitable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-04 Victory Idowu

We propose dual regression as an alternative to the quantile regression process for the global estimation of conditional distribution functions under minimal assumptions. Dual regression provides all the interpretational power of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Richard Spady , Sami Stouli

We consider conditional estimation in two-stage sample size adjustable designs and the following bias. More specifically, we consider a design which permits raising the sample size when interim results look rather promising, and, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-27 Per Broberg , Frank Miller

Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-09 Yoav Wald , Amir Globerson

Quantile regression is a method to estimate the quantiles of the conditional distribution of a response variable, and as such it permits a much more accurate portrayal of the relationship between the response variable and observed…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-01-08 Jiyan Yang , Xiangrui Meng , Michael W. Mahoney

So far, one-factor copulas induce conditional independence with respect to a latent factor. In this paper, we extend one-factor copulas to conditionally dependent models. This is achieved through new representations which allow to build new…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-12 Nathan Uyttendaele , Gildas Mazo

An Archimedean copula is characterised by its generator. This is a real function whose inverse behaves as a survival function. We propose a semiparametric generator based on a quadratic spline. This is achieved by modelling the first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-13 Ricardo Hoyos , Luis Nieto-Barajas

Determining the causes of extreme events is a fundamental question in many scientific fields. An important aspect when modelling multivariate extremes is the tail dependence. In application, the extreme dependence structure may…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-21 Juraj Bodik , Linda Mhalla , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-20 Brahim Brahimi

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-23 João Nicolau , Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

In this paper we consider finite conditional random quantities and conditional previsions assessments in the setting of coherence. We use a suitable representation for conditional random quantities; in particular the indicator of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-13 Angelo Gilio , Giuseppe Sanfilippo

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Natalie Neumeyer , Marek Omelka , Sarka Hudecova

We propose an estimator of the kernel-based conditional mean dependence measure obtained from an appropriate modification of a naive estimator based on usual empirical estimators. We then get asymptotic normality of this estimator both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Terence Kevin Manfoumbi Djonguet , Guy Martial Nkiet

Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is defined as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-05 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

Quantile regression is a statistical method for estimating conditional quantiles of a response variable. In addition, for mean estimation, it is well known that quantile regression is more robust to outliers than $l_2$-based methods. By…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-18 Steven Siwei Ye , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

We consider quantile regression processes from censored data under dependent data structures and derive a uniform Bahadur representation for those processes. We also consider cases where the dimension of the parameter in the quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-14 Stanislav Volgushev , Jens Wagener , Holger Dette

Conditional independence is a fundamental concept in many areas of statistical research, including, for example, sufficient dimension reduction, causal inference, and statistical graphical models. In many modern applications, data arise in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Yin Tang , Bing Li

Quantile regression permits describing how quantiles of a scalar response variable depend on a set of predictors. Because a unique definition of multivariate quantiles is lacking, extending quantile regression to multivariate responses is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-22 Silvia Columbu , Paolo Frumento , Matteo Bottai

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers , Michal Warchol

We study identification of a structural group effect when the group indicator $G\in\{0,1\}$ is unobserved but the analyst observes a calibrated probability score $p\in[0,1]$ satisfying $\mathbb{E}[G|p,X]=p$. Under a constant-coefficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Marcell T. Kurbucz