Related papers: Continuous Level Monte Carlo and Sample-Adaptive M…

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may…

Sampling-based approaches are widely used in systems without analytic models to estimate risk or find optimal control. However, gathering sufficient data in such scenarios can be prohibitively costly. On the other hand, in many situations,…

We introduce a Monte Carlo Virtual Element estimator based on Virtual Element discretizations for stochastic elliptic partial differential equations with random diffusion coefficients. We prove estimates for the statistical approximation…

The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…

In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based…

This paper studies multi-level stochastic approximation algorithms. Our aim is to extend the scope of the multilevel Monte Carlo method recently introduced by Giles (Giles 2008) to the framework of stochastic optimization by means of…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings,…

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…

In this paper we propose an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm to search for Bayesian experimental designs such that the expected information gain is maximized. The gradient of the expected information gain with respect to…

Monte Carlo methods play important part in modern statistical physics. The application of these methods suffer from two main difficulties.The first is caused by the relatively small number of particles that can participate in any numerical…

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Stochastic collocation methods for approximating the solution of partial differential equations with random input data (e.g., coefficients and forcing terms) suffer from the curse of dimensionality whereby increases in the stochastic…

We introduce interacting particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (iPMCMC), a PMCMC method based on an interacting pool of standard and conditional sequential Monte Carlo samplers. Like related methods, iPMCMC is a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler…

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

In this paper, we consider a Monte Carlo simulation method (MinMC) that approximates prices and risk measures for a range $\Gamma$ of model parameters at once. The simulation method that we study has recently gained popularity [HS20, FPP22,…

In this work we present a clustering technique called \textit{multi-level conformal clustering (MLCC)}. The technique is hierarchical in nature because it can be performed at multiple significance levels which yields greater insight into…

For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations…

Multilevel estimators aim at reducing the variance of Monte Carlo statistical estimators, by combining samples generated with simulators of different costs and accuracies. In particular, the recent work of Schaden and Ullmann (2020) on the…