Related papers: The Gaussian Process Autoregressive Regression Mod…

We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…

Gaussian process regression is a frequently used statistical method for flexible yet fully probabilistic non-linear regression modeling. A common obstacle is its computational complexity which scales poorly with the number of observations.…

Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice,…

We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…

Gaussian process (GP) priors are non-parametric generative models with appealing modelling properties for Bayesian inference: they can model non-linear relationships through noisy observations, have closed-form expressions for training and…

Mechanistic simulation models are inverted against observations in order to gain inference on modeled processes. However, with the increasing ability to collect high resolution observations, these observations represent more patterns of…

We introduce Latent Gaussian Process Regression which is a latent variable extension allowing modelling of non-stationary multi-modal processes using GPs. The approach is built on extending the input space of a regression problem with a…

Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as…

Many inferential tasks involve fitting models to observed data and predicting outcomes at new covariate values, requiring interpolation or extrapolation. Conventional methods select a single best-fitting model, discarding fits that were…

Inspired by recent advances in the field of expert-based approximations of Gaussian processes (GPs), we present an expert-based approach to large-scale multi-output regression using single-output GP experts. Employing a deeply structured…

This paper presents an approach for constrained Gaussian Process (GP) regression where we assume that a set of linear transformations of the process are bounded. It is motivated by machine learning applications for high-consequence…

We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in…

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

Multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) regression allows modelling dependencies among multiple correlated response variables. Similarly to standard Gaussian processes, MOGPs are sensitive to model misspecification and outliers, which can…

A multi-output Gaussian process (GP) is introduced as a model for the joint posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of set of models and/or experts, conditional on a vector of covariates, from historical predictions in the…

When modelling censored observations, a typical approach in current regression methods is to use a censored-Gaussian (i.e. Tobit) model to describe the conditional output distribution. In this paper, as in the case of missing data, we argue…

Multi-task learning models using Gaussian processes (GP) have been developed and successfully applied in various applications. The main difficulty with this approach is the computational cost of inference using the union of examples from…

Adaptive learning is necessary for non-stationary environments where the learning machine needs to forget past data distribution. Efficient algorithms require a compact model update to not grow in computational burden with the incoming data…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of…