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The machine learning community has recently put effort into quantized or low-precision arithmetics to scale large models. This paper proposes performing probabilistic inference in the quantized, discrete parameter space created by these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Aleksanteri Sladek , Martin Trapp , Arno Solin

There is a growing need for the ability to analyse interval-valued data. However, existing descriptive frameworks to achieve this ignore the process by which interval-valued data are typically constructed; namely by the aggregation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-08 Xin Zhang , Boris Beranger , Scott A. Sisson

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Fabian Guignard , Federico Amato , Mikhail Kanevski

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-02 Beate Sick , Torsten Hothorn , Oliver Dürr

We present a sampling-free approach for computing the epistemic uncertainty of a neural network. Epistemic uncertainty is an important quantity for the deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical applications, since it represents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-04 Janis Postels , Francesco Ferroni , Huseyin Coskun , Nassir Navab , Federico Tombari

Uncertainty estimation methods using deep learning approaches strive against separating how uncertain the state of the world manifests to us via measurement (objective end) from the way this gets scrambled with the model specification and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-21 Edgardo Solano-Carrillo

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have been widely used to obtain solutions to various physical phenomena modeled as Differential Equations. As PINNs are not naturally equipped with mechanisms for Uncertainty Quantification, some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Pablo Flores , Olga Graf , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

The quantification of uncertainty in prediction models is crucial for reliable decision-making, yet remains a significant challenge. Interval time series forecasting offers a principled solution to this problem by providing prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Miaoxuan Zhu , Yi Yu , Yuyang Li , Wei Li , Guangcan Liu

Standard approaches for uncertainty quantification in deep learning and physics-informed learning have persistent limitations. Indicatively, strong assumptions regarding the data likelihood are required, the performance highly depends on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Qianli Shen , Wai Hoh Tang , Zhun Deng , Apostolos Psaros , Kenji Kawaguchi

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Dimitris Bertsimas , Benjamin Boucher

Deep learning models achieve high predictive accuracy across a broad spectrum of tasks, but rigorously quantifying their predictive uncertainty remains challenging. Usable estimates of predictive uncertainty should (1) cover the true…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Traditional neural network regression models provide only point estimates, failing to capture predictive uncertainty. Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) address this limitation by producing output distributions, enabling the construction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

The belief function approach to uncertainty quantification as proposed in the Demspter-Shafer theory of evidence is established upon the general mathematical models for set-valued observations, called random sets. Set-valued predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Fabio Cuzzolin

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-14 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Mateus P. Otto , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael B. Stern

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Qi Gao , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee , Yao Li

Private inference (PI) enables inference directly on cryptographically secure data.While promising to address many privacy issues, it has seen limited use due to extreme runtimes. Unlike plaintext inference, where latency is dominated by…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Minsu Cho , Ameya Joshi , Siddharth Garg , Brandon Reagen , Chinmay Hegde

While the accuracy of modern deep learning models has significantly improved in recent years, the ability of these models to generate uncertainty estimates has not progressed to the same degree. Uncertainty methods are designed to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Adam M. Oberman , Chris Finlay , Alexander Iannantuono , Tiago Salvador

Deep neural networks are frequently used by autonomous systems for their ability to learn complex, non-linear data patterns and make accurate predictions in dynamic environments. However, their use as black boxes introduces risks as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Dimitrios Boursinos , Xenofon Koutsoukos

This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei