Related papers: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events
Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. By their very…
Solar flares are one of the most energetic events in the solar system, their impact on Earth at ground level and its atmosphere remains under study. The repercussions of this phenomenon in our technological infrastructure includes radio…
This research provides an analysis of extreme events in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere due to disturbances of the solar wind. Extreme value theory has been applied to a 20 year data set from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)…
We trace the evolution of research on extreme solar and solar-terrestrial events from the 1859 Carrington event to the rapid development of the last twenty years. Our focus is on the largest observed/inferred/theoretical cases of sunspot…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
Extreme events such as natural and economic disasters leave lasting impacts on society and motivate the analysis of extremes from data. While classical statistical tools based on Gaussian distributions focus on average behaviour and can…
We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…
Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…
The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one…
Solar hard X-ray flares can expose astronauts on lunar and deep space extravehicular activities (EVAs) to dangerous acute biological doses. We combine calculations of radiative transfer through shielding materials with subsequent transfer…
Extreme Solar Energetic Particle Events (ESPEs) were identified almost a decade ago, providing context for super events unleashed by our host star, the Sun. Their assumed solar origin drives the question of their ``worst-case" impact, which…
Context. Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) late-phase (ELP) flares exhibit a second peak in warm coronal emissions minutes to hours after the main peak of the flare. This phase is all but negligible, and it is still poorly understood what role it…
Solar eruptions generally refer to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Both are important sources of space weather. Solar flares cause sudden change in the ionization level in the ionosphere. CMEs cause solar energetic particle (SEP)…
Based on a sample of 1114 flares observed simultaneously in hard X-rays (HXR) by the BATSE instrument and in soft X-rays (SXR) by GOES, we studied several aspects of the Neupert effect and its interpretation in the frame of the…
Many questions have to be answered before understanding the relationship between the emerging magnetic flux through the solar surface and the extreme geoeffective events. Which threshold determines the onset of the eruption? What is the…
Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative…
Large solar eruptive events, including solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can lead to solar energetic particle (SEP) events. During these events, protons are accelerated up to several GeV and pose numerous space weather risks.…
Prediction of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events garner increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth's protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic reconnection-driven processes…
In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…