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In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…
Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…
There are many issues that can cause problems when attempting to infer model parameters from data. Data and models are both imperfect, and as such there are multiple scenarios in which standard methods of inference will lead to misleading…
The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…
In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…
As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
Bayesian deep learning all too often underfits so that the Bayesian prediction is less accurate than a simple point estimate. Uncertainty quantification then comes at the cost of accuracy. For linearized models, the null space of the…
Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…
Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…
A general Bayesian framework for model selection on random network models regarding their features is considered. The goal is to develop a principle Bayesian model selection approach to compare different fittable, not necessarily nested,…
Bayesian methods are developed for the multivariate nonparametric regression problem where the domain is taken to be a compact Riemannian manifold. In terms of the latter, the underlying geometry of the manifold induces certain symmetries…
Deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks, have long been applied to image and multi-media tasks, particularly those with structured data. More recently, there has been more attention to unstructured data that can be…
The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…
Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…
We provide a geometric interpretation to Bayesian inference that allows us to introduce a natural measure of the level of agreement between priors, likelihoods, and posteriors. The starting point for the construction of our geometry is the…
Tensors, also known as multidimensional arrays, are useful data structures in machine learning and statistics. In recent years, Bayesian methods have emerged as a popular direction for analyzing tensor-valued data since they provide a…
We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…
The Bayesian approach to solving inverse problems relies on the choice of a prior. This critical ingredient allows the formulation of expert knowledge or physical constraints in a probabilistic fashion and plays an important role for the…
The modeling and uncertainty quantification of closed curves is an important problem in the field of shape analysis, and can have significant ramifications for subsequent statistical tasks. Many of these tasks involve collections of closed…