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We describe the asymptotic behavior of the conditional least squares estimator of the offspring mean for subcritical strongly stationary Galton--Watson processes with regularly varying immigration with tail index $\alpha \in (1,2)$. The…
The constant increase in energy consumption has created the necessity of extending the energy transmission and distribution network. Placement of powerlines represent a risk for bird population. Hence, better understanding of deaths induced…
This paper deals with the stochastic modeling of a class of heterogeneous population in a random environment, called birth-death-swap. In addition to demographic events, swap events, i.e. moves between subgroups, occur in the population.…
Our purpose is to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest for controlled branching processes (CBPs) without prior knowledge of the maximum number of offspring that an individual can give birth to and without…
Complex biological processes are usually experimented along time among a collection of individuals. Longitudinal data are then available and the statistical challenge is to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms. The…
Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree. If the system survives until a large time $T$, then choose $k$ particles uniformly from those alive. What does the ancestral tree drawn out by these $k$ particles look like? Some special cases are…
We study the saddlepoint approximation (SPA) for sums of $n$ i.i.d. random vectors $X_i\in\mathbb R^d$ in growing dimensions. SPA provides highly accurate approximations to probability densities and distribution functions via the moment…
We present elliptical processes, a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsume Gaussian processes and Student's t processes. This generalization includes a range of new heavy-tailed behaviors while retaining computational…
We consider the case of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic compartment models, using incomplete time course data consisting of incidence counts that are either the number of new infections or removals in time intervals of…
Mean-field models are often used to approximate Markov processes with large state-spaces. One-step processes, also known as birth-death processes, are an important class of such processes and are processes with state space…
The growth of a population is often modeled as branching process where each individual at the end of its life is replaced by a certain number of offspring. An example of these branching models is the Bellman-Harris process, where the…
For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…
We consider covariance parameter estimation for a Gaussian process under inequality constraints (boundedness, monotonicity or convexity) in fixed-domain asymptotics. We address the estimation of the variance parameter and the estimation of…
To accurately quantify landslide hazard in a region of Turkey, we develop new marked point process models within a Bayesian hierarchical framework for the joint prediction of landslide counts and sizes. To accommodate for the dominant role…
In Bayesian nonparametric inference, random discrete probability measures are commonly used as priors within hierarchical mixture models for density estimation and for inference on the clustering of the data. Recently, it has been shown…
We present a quasi-conjugate Bayes approach for estimating Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters, distribution tails and extreme quantiles within the Peaks-Over-Threshold framework. Damsleth conjugate Bayes structure on Gamma…
We study estimation and prediction of Gaussian random fields with covariance models belonging to the generalized Wendland (GW) class, under fixed domain asymptotics. As the Mat\'ern case, this class allows a continuous parameterization of…
A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…
This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
We introduce a broad class of spatial models to describe how spatially heterogeneous populations live, die, and reproduce. Individuals are represented by points of a point measure, whose birth and death rates can depend both on spatial…