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Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a general methodology combining flexible ensemble learning and semiparametric efficiency theory in a two-step procedure for estimation of causal parameters. Proposed targeted maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-22 Helene Charlotte Wiese Rytgaard , Frank Eriksson , Mark van der Laan

Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (LTV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Kexin Zhao , Bo Wang , Cuiying Zhao , Tongyao Wan

Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions (CMRs) are popular in economics. These models involve finite and infinite dimensional parameters. The infinite dimensional components include conditional expectations, conditional choice…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-01 Facundo Argañaraz , Juan Carlos Escanciano

Data mining and machine learning hold great potential to enable health systems to systematically use data and analytics to identify inefficiencies and best practices that improve care and reduce costs. Waveform data offers particularly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Michael Albada

In this technical note we present a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for a previously studied target parameter that aims to transport an average treatment effect (ATE) on a clinical outcome in a source population to what the ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Mark van der Laan , Susan Gruber

Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the presence of high-dimensional confounding,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Susan Ellul , Stijn Vansteelandt , John B. Carlin , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Waverly Wei , Maya Petersen , Mark J van der Laan , Zeyu Zheng , Chong Wu , Jingshen Wang

Chemotherapy for cancer treatment is costly and accompanied by severe side effects, highlighting the critical need for early prediction of treatment outcomes to improve patient management and informed decision-making. Predictive models for…

Longitudinal modified treatment policies (LMTP) have been recently developed as a novel method to define and estimate causal parameters that depend on the natural value of treatment. LMTPs represent an important advancement in causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Iván Díaz , Katherine L Hoffman , Nima S. Hejazi

Linear Mixed Effects (LME) models have been widely applied in clustered data analysis in many areas including marketing research, clinical trials, and biomedical studies. Inference can be conducted using maximum likelihood approach if…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Hao Chen , Lanshan Han , Alvin Lim

Effectively modeling the dynamic nature of user preferences is crucial for enhancing recommendation accuracy and fostering transparency in recommender systems. Traditional user profiling often overlooks the distinction between transitory…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Milad Sabouri , Masoud Mansoury , Kun Lin , Bamshad Mobasher

Subgroup analyses within randomized controlled trials are often underpowered due to limited sample sizes. We address this challenge by leveraging trial participants outside the subgroup of interest to augment estimation within the subgroup.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Sky Qiu , Nerissa Nance , Rachael Phillips , Jens Tarp , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation is widely used to analyze the properties of molecules and materials. Most practical applications, such as comparison with experimental measurements, designing drug molecules, or optimizing materials, rely…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2018-12-20 Frank Noé

Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) is a popular method to perform interpretability of any kind of Machine Learning (ML) model. It explains one ML prediction at a time, by learning a simple linear model around the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Giorgio Visani , Enrico Bagli , Federico Chesani

Large language models (LLMs) show promise for health applications when combined with behavioral sensing data. Traditional approaches convert sensor data into text prompts, but this process is prone to errors, computationally expensive, and…

This paper discusses identification, estimation, and inference on dynamic local average treatment effects (LATEs) in instrumental variables (IVs) settings. First, we show that compliers--observations whose treatment status is affected by…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-17 Alessandro Casini , Adam McCloskey , Luca Rolla , Raimondo Pala

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great potential in various data mining tasks, such as knowledge question answering, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning. However, the reasoning capability of LLMs on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-22 He Chang , Chenchen Ye , Zhulin Tao , Jie Wu , Zhengmao Yang , Yunshan Ma , Xianglin Huang , Tat-Seng Chua

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are vital for supporting clinical decision-making in biomedical informatics. However, their predictive performance can vary across demographic groups, often due to the underrepresentation of historically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Ioannis Bilionis , Ricardo C. Berrios , Luis Fernandez-Luque , Carlos Castillo

We study the assessment of the accuracy of heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, where the HTE is not directly observable so standard computation of prediction errors is not applicable. To tackle the difficulty, we propose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-10 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

Non-adherence to assigned treatment is common in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Recently, there has been an increased interest in estimating causal effects of treatment received, for example the so-called local average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-05 Karla DiazOrdaz , James Carpenter