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We develop estimation and inference methods for a stylized macroeconomic model with potentially multiple behavioural equilibria, where agents form expectations using a constant-gain learning rule. We first show geometric ergodicity of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Alexander Mayer , Davide Raggi

We introduce a new randomization procedure for experiments based on the cube method, which achieves near-exact covariate balance. This ensures compliance with standard balance tests and allows for balancing on many covariates, enabling more…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-21 Laurent Davezies , Guillaume Hollard , Pedro Vergara Merino

This paper presents two stochastic model predictive control methods for linear time-invariant systems subject to unbounded additive uncertainties. The new methods are developed by formulating the chance constraints into deterministic form,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-22 Fei Li , Huiping Li , Yuyao He

We consider a linear mixed-effects model with a clustered structure, where the parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) based on possibly unbalanced data. Inference with this model is typically done based on asymptotic theory,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-30 Chih-Hao Chang , Hsin-Cheng Huang , Ching-Kang Ing

Stochastic approximation algorithms have been the subject of an enormous body of literature, both theoretical and applied. Recently, Laruelle and Pag\`es (2013) presented a link between the stochastic approximation and response-adaptive…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-21 Li-Xin Zhang

The Generalized P\'{o}lya Urn (GPU) is a popular urn model which is widely used in many disciplines. In particular, it is extensively used in treatment allocation schemes in clinical trials. In this paper, we propose a sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Li-X. Zhang , Feifang Hu , Siu Hung Cheung

We introduce a deterministic, time-reversible version of the Ehrenfest urn model. The distribution of first-passage times from equilibrium to non-equilibrium states and vice versa is calculated. We find that average times for transition to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 R. Metzler , W. Kinzel , I. Kanter

Suppose an urn contains initially any number of balls of two colours. One ball is drawn randomly and then put back with $\alpha$ balls of the same colour and $\beta$ balls of the opposite colour. Both cases, $\beta=0$ and $\beta>0$ are well…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Raphael Alves , Rafael A. Rosales

Spectral variability in hyperspectral images can result from factors including environmental, illumination, atmospheric and temporal changes. Its occurrence may lead to the propagation of significant estimation errors in the unmixing…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-01-23 Ricardo Augusto Borsoi , Tales Imbiriba , José Carlos Moreira Bermudez

This paper proves limit theorems for the number of monochromatic edges in uniform random colorings of general random graphs. These can be seen as generalizations of the birthday problem (what is the chance that there are two friends with…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-13 Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Persi Diaconis , Sumit Mukherjee

In this paper, we prove functional limit theorems for P\'olya urn processes whose number of draws and initial number of balls tend to infinity together. This is motivated by recent work of Borovkov [5], where they prove a functional limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-13 Christopher B. C. Dean

The configuration model is the most natural model to generate a random multigraph with a given degree sequence. We use the notion of dense graph limits to characterize the special form of limit objects of convergent sequences of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-11 Balazs Rath , Laszlo Szakacs

For the most general Polya urn schemes, we establish the almost sure convergence of its composition. The only requirement is that there are always enough balls of both colors, so that the extractions can be indefinitely pursued according to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Ricardo Vélez

Stein's method is used to obtain two theorems on multivariate normal approximation. Our main theorem, Theorem 1.2, provides a bound on the distance to normality for any nonnegative random vector. Theorem 1.2 requires multivariate size bias…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Larry Goldstein , Yosef Rinott

Competing urns refers to the random experiment where m balls are dropped, randomly and independently, into urns 1,...,n. Formally, we have a random map $\sigma$ from {1,...,m} to {1,...,n} with the $\sigma(i)$'s i.i.d. With $x_j$ the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-06 Jeff Kahn , Michael Neiman

We consider the additive superimposition of an extensive number of independent Euclidean Random Matrices in the high-density regime. The resolvent is computed with techniques from free probability theory, as well as with the replica method…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2020-05-27 Aldo Battista , Remi Monasson

We consider the problem of estimating states and parameters in a model based on a system of coupled stochastic differential equations, based on noisy discrete-time data. Special attention is given to nonlinear dynamics and state-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Uffe Høgsbro Thygesen , Kasper Kristensen

Using generating function methods for diagonalizing the transition matrix in 2-Urn models, we provide a complete classification into solvable and unsolvable subclasses, with further division of the solvable models into the Martingale and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-07-10 William Pickering , Chjan Lim

Seemingly unrelated linear regression models are introduced in which the distribution of the errors is a finite mixture of Gaussian components. Identifiability conditions are provided. The score vector and the Hessian matrix are derived.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Giuliano Galimberti , Elena Scardovi , Gabriele Soffritti

We use the framework of multivariate regular variation to analyse the extremal behaviour of preferential attachment models. To this end, we follow a directed linear preferential attachment model for a random, heavy-tailed number of steps in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-06 Anja Janßen , Max Ziegenbalg