Related papers: Spectral State Compression of Markov Processes
Based on information theory, we present a method to determine an optimal Markov approximation for modelling and prediction from time series data. The method finds a balance between minimal modelling errors by taking as much as possible…
Forecasting tasks using large datasets gathering thousands of heterogeneous time series is a crucial statistical problem in numerous sectors. The main challenge is to model a rich variety of time series, leverage any available external…
Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…
In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
The goal of this paper is to analyze distributional Markov Decision Processes as a class of control problems in which the objective is to learn policies that steer the distribution of a cumulative reward toward a prescribed target law,…
Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically.…
In the continuity of a recent paper ([6]), dealing with finite Markov chains, this paper proposes and analyzes a recursive algorithm for the approximation of the quasi-stationary distribution of a general Markov chain living on a compact…
We give a Markov chain based algorithm for sampling almost uniform solutions of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). Assuming a canonical setting for the Lov\'asz local lemma, where each constraint is violated by a small number of…
We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of $\mathbb{R}$. An order-$1$ autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov…
Motivated by wide-ranging applications such as video delivery over networks using Multiple Description Codes, congestion control, and inventory management, we study the state-tracking of a Markovian random process with a known transition…
In the last decade, advances in molecular dynamics (MD) and Markov State Model (MSM) methodologies have made possible accurate and efficient estimation of kinetic rates and reactive pathways for complex biomolecular dynamics occurring on…
This paper provides convergence analysis for the approximation of a class of path-dependent functionals underlying a continuous stochastic process. In the first part, given a sequence of weak convergent processes, we provide a sufficient…
The transition kernel of a continuous-state-action Markov decision process (MDP) admits a natural tensor structure. This paper proposes a tensor-inspired unsupervised learning method to identify meaningful low-dimensional state and action…
We construct different classes of lumpings for a family of Markov chain products which reflect the structure of a given finite poset. We use essentially combinatorial methods. We prove that, for such a product, every lumping can be obtained…
We address the problem of detecting an anomalous process among a large number of processes. At each time t, normal processes are in state zero (normal state), while the abnormal process may be in either state zero (normal state) or state…
In this work, we study the real-time tracking and reconstruction of an information source with the purpose of actuation. A device monitors the state of the information source and transmits status updates to a receiver over a wireless…
This work introduces a new abstraction technique for reducing the state space of large, discrete-time labelled Markov chains. The abstraction leverages the semantics of interval Markov decision processes and the existing notion of…
The problem of detection and possible estimation of a signal generated by a dynamic system when a variable number of noisy measurements can be taken is here considered. Assuming a Markov evolution of the system (in particular, the pair…
Lumping a Markov process introduces a coarser level of description that is useful in many contexts and applications. The dynamics on the coarse grained states is often approximated by its Markovian component. In this letter we derive…