Related papers: Spectral State Compression of Markov Processes
Markov processes serve as a universal model for many real-world random processes. This paper presents a data-driven approach for learning these models through the spectral decomposition of the infinitesimal generator (IG) of the Markov…
This work introduces a new framework for modeling financial markets through an interpretable probabilistic state machine. By clustering historical returns based on momentum and risk features across multiple time horizons, we identify…
We are interested in the connection between a metastable continuous state space Markov process (satisfying e.g. the Langevin or overdamped Langevin equation) and a jump Markov process in a discrete state space. More precisely, we use the…
Markov state models (MSMs) are widely employed to analyze the kinetics of complex systems. But despite their effectiveness in many applications, MSMs are prone to systematic or statistical errors, often exacerbated by suboptimal…
Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a…
Molecular simulations can provide microscopic insight into the physical and chemical driving forces of complex molecular processes. Despite continued advancement of simulation methodology, model errors may lead to inconsistencies between…
We consider the problem of learning a policy for a Markov decision process consistent with data captured on the state-actions pairs followed by the policy. We assume that the policy belongs to a class of parameterized policies which are…
We study K-processes, which are Markov processes in a denumerable state space, all of whose elements are stable, with the exception of a single state, starting from which the process enters finite sets of stable states with uniform…
Structured distributions, i.e. distributions over combinatorial spaces, are commonly used to learn latent probabilistic representations from observed data. However, scaling these models is bottlenecked by the high computational and memory…
Many systems are partially stochastic in nature. We have derived data driven approaches for extracting stochastic state machines (Markov models) directly from observed data. This chapter provides an overview of our approach with numerous…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
A novel strategy that combines a given collection of $\pi$-reversible Markov kernels is proposed. At each Markov transition, one of the available kernels is selected via a state-dependent probability distribution. In contrast to random-scan…
This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed…
This paper describes a data reduction technique in case of a markov chain of specified order. Instead of observing all the transitions in a markov chain we record only a few of them and treat the remaining part as missing. The decision…
The article studies segmentation problem (also known as classification problem) with pairwise Markov models (PMMs). A PMM is a process where the observation process and underlying state sequence form a two-dimensional Markov chain, it is a…
This paper studies the estimation of low-rank Markov chains from empirical trajectories. We propose a non-convex estimator based on rank-constrained likelihood maximization. Statistical upper bounds are provided for the Kullback-Leiber…
We study K-processes, which are Markov processes in a denumerable state space, all of whose elements are stable, with the exception of a single state, starting from which the process enters finite sets of stable states with uniform…
A comparison theorem for state-dependent regime-switching diffusion processes is established, which enables us to control pathwisely the evolution of the state-dependent switching component simply by Markov chains. Moreover, a sharp…
Ergodic properties and asymptotic stationarity are investigated in this paper for the pseudo-covariance matrix (PCM) of a recursive state estimator which is robust against parametric uncertainties and is based on plant output measurements…
State-space models can be used to incorporate subject knowledge on the underlying dynamics of a time series by the introduction of a latent Markov state-process. A user can specify the dynamics of this process together with how the state…