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State aggregation is a popular model reduction method rooted in optimal control. It reduces the complexity of engineering systems by mapping the system's states into a small number of meta-states. The choice of aggregation map often depends…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-17 Yaqi Duan , Zheng Tracy Ke , Mengdi Wang

We study the approximation of a Markov chain on a reduced state space, for both discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains. In this context, we extend the existing theory of formal error bounds for the approximated transient distributions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-12 Fabian Michel , Markus Siegle

Experiments, in particular on biological systems, typically probe lower-dimensional observables which are projections of high-dimensional dynamics. In order to infer consistent models capturing the relevant dynamics of the system, it is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-11-18 Xizhu Zhao , Dmitrii E. Makarov , Aljaž Godec

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-28 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Gerrit Großmann , Verena Wolf

Stochastic processes on complex networks, where each node is in one of several compartments, and neighboring nodes interact with each other, can be used to describe a variety of real-world spreading phenomena. However, computational…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-06-28 Gerrit Großmann , Luca Bortolussi

The goal of this work is to formally abstract a Markov process evolving in discrete time over a general state space as a finite-state Markov chain, with the objective of precisely approximating its state probability distribution in time,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani , Alessandro Abate

We survey information-theoretic approaches to the reduction of Markov chains. Our survey is structured in two parts: The first part considers Markov chain coarse graining, which focuses on projecting the Markov chain to a process on a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Bernhard C. Geiger

This paper develops a low-nonnegative-rank approximation method to identify the state aggregation structure of a finite-state Markov chain under an assumption that the state space can be mapped into a handful of meta-states. The number of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Yaqi Duan , Mengdi Wang , Zaiwen Wen , Yaxiang Yuan

Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-05-17 Vitali Volovoi

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet

To understand the long-run behavior of Markov population models, the computation of the stationary distribution is often a crucial part. We propose a truncation-based approximation that employs a state-space lumping scheme, aggregating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-05 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Gerrit Großmann , Verena Wolf

Leveraging recent work on data-driven methods for constructing a finite state space Markov process from dynamical systems, we address two problems for obtaining further reduced statistical representations. The first problem is to extract…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-14 Ludovico Theo Giorgini , Andre N. Souza , Peter J. Schmid

In typical single-molecule force spectroscopy experiments the mechanical unfolding of molecular complexes or biomolecules is studied applying a force ramp to one end of the system while the other end is kept fixed in space. The…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2026-05-18 Marco Oestereich , Jürgen Gauss , Gregor Diezemann

Modeling unknown systems from data is a precursor of system optimization and sequential decision making. In this paper, we focus on learning a Markov model from a single trajectory of states. Suppose that the transition model has a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-30 Ziwei Zhu , Xudong Li , Mengdi Wang , Anru Zhang

Under certain conditions, the dynamics of coarse-grained models of solvated proteins can be described using a Markov state model, which tracks the evolution of populations of configurations. The transition rates among states that appear in…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2022-09-26 Margarita Colberg , Jeremy Schofield

We consider a discrete time semi-Markov process where the characteristics defining the process depend on a small perturbation parameter. It is assumed that the state space consists of one finite communicating class of states and, in…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-21 Mikael Petersson

Birth and death Markov processes can model stochastic physical systems from percolation to disease spread and, in particular, wildfires. We introduce and analyze a birth-death-suppression Markov process as a model of controlled culling of…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-10-11 George Hulsey , David L. Alderson , Jean Carlson

We present a sufficient condition for a non-injective function of a Markov chain to be a second-order Markov chain with the same entropy rate as the original chain. This permits an information-preserving state space reduction by merging…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-12-20 Bernhard C. Geiger , Christoph Temmel

This paper studies how to find compact state embeddings from high-dimensional Markov state trajectories, where the transition kernel has a small intrinsic rank. In the spirit of diffusion map, we propose an efficient method for learning a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Yifan Sun , Yaqi Duan , Hao Gong , Mengdi Wang

Predictive equivalence in discrete stochastic processes have been applied with great success to identify randomness and structure in statistical physics and chaotic dynamical systems and to inferring hidden Markov models. We examine the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-21 Samuel P. Loomis , James P. Crutchfield
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