Related papers: Asymptotic Behavior of SIRS Models in State-depend…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
We develop a stochastic human-rodent compartment model for Mpox transmission that combines diffusion noise with Hawkes self-exciting jumps in the human infection dynamics. Including Hawkes processes allows, for instance, to model the short…
TThis paper presents the dynamics of mosquitoes and humans, with general nonlinear incidence rate and multiple distributed delays for the disease. The model is a SEIRS system of delay differential equations. The normalized dimensionless…
Two stochastic models of susceptible/infected/removed (SIR) type are introduced for the spread of infection through a spatially-distributed population. Individuals are initially distributed at random in space, and they move continuously…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
In this kind of model, the main characteristic that determines population viability in the long term is the stochastic growth rate (SGR) denoted $\lambda_S$. When $\lambda_S$ is larger than one, the population grows exponentially with…
The focus of this article is on the dynamics of a new susceptible-infected model which consists of a susceptible group ($S$) and two different infectious groups ($I_1$ and $I_2$). Once infected, an individual becomes a member of one of…
This paper is concerned with spatial spreading dynamics of a nonlocal dispersal population model in a shifting environment where the favorable region is shrinking. It is shown that the species will become extinct in the habitat once the…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
The dynamics of species' densities depend both on internal and external variables. Internal variables include frequencies of individuals exhibiting different phenotypes or living in different spatial locations. External variables include…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to…
The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
We study an epidemic model for a constant population by taking into account four compartments of the individuals characterizing their states of health. Each individual is in one of the compartments susceptible (S); incubated - infected yet…
We study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic SAIRS-type model with vaccination, where the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in the epidemic dynamics. In the model, the values of the…
We study stochastic extinction for a class of Markov processes motivated by models in ecology and epidemiology. Extinction is often characterized by a boundedness condition and a condition on boundary Lyapunov exponents (invasion rates).…
Let $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ be a continuous time Markov process on some metric space $M,$ leaving invariant a closed subset $M_0 \subset M,$ called the {\em extinction set}. We give general conditions ensuring either "Stochastic persistence"…
Methods for predicting the probability and timing of a species' extinction are typically based on a combination of theoretical models and empirical data, and focus on single species population dynamics. Of course, species also interact with…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…