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Recently, a generalized Bernoulli process (GBP) was developed as a stationary binary sequence whose covariance function obeys a power law. In this paper, we further develop generalized Bernoulli processes, reveal their asymptotic behaviors,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Jeonghwa Lee

We explore the possibility of discovering extreme voting patterns in the U.S. Congressional voting records by drawing ideas from the mixture of contaminated normal distributions. A mixture of latent trait models via contaminated normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-14 Yang Tang , Paul D. McNicholas , Antonio Punzo

This paper deals with the problem of model selection for a general class of integer-valued time series. We propose a penalized criterion based on the Poisson quasi-likelihood of the model. Under certain regularity conditions, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-21 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

While several Gaussian mixture models-based biclustering approaches currently exist in the literature for continuous data, approaches to handle discrete data have not been well researched. A multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MPLN) model-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Caitlin Kral , Evan Chance , Ryan Browne , Sanjeena Subedi

In this contribution, we construct a connection between two quantum voting models presented previously. We propose to try to determine the result of a vote from associated given opinion polls. We introduce a density operator relative to the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-11-22 François Dubois

As predictive algorithms grow in popularity, using the same dataset to both train and test a new model has become routine across research, policy, and industry. Sample-splitting attains valid inference on model properties by using separate…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-27 Bruno Fava

The generalized negative binomial distribution (GNB) is a new flexible family of discrete distributions that are mixed Poisson laws with the mixing generalized gamma (GG) distributions. This family of discrete distributions is very wide and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-18 Andrey K. Gorshenin , Victor Yu. Korolev

Motivated by investigating spatio-temporal patterns of the distribution of continuous variables, we consider describing the conditional distribution function of the response variable incorporating spatio-temporal components given…

I present a critical review of techniques for estimating confidence intervals on binomial population proportions inferred from success counts in small-to-intermediate samples. Population proportions arise frequently as quantities of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 Ewan Cameron

Aligning large language models (LLMs) to human preferences typically relies on aggregating pooled feedback into a single reward model. However, this standard approach assumes that all labelers share the same underlying preferences, ignoring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Federico Echenique , Alireza Fallah , Baihe Huang , Michael I. Jordan

We derive a Gaussian Central Limit Theorem for the sample quantiles based on locally dependent random variables with explicit convergence rate. Our approach is based on converting the problem to a sum of indicator random variables, applying…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-05 Partha S. Dey , Grigory Terlov

The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Mahsa Nadifar , Andriette Bekker , Mohammad Arashi , Abel Ramoelo

Let $ V_{n} = X_{1,n} + X_{2,n} + \cdots + X_{n,n}$ where $X_{i,n}$ are Bernoulli random variables which take the value $1$ with probability $b(i;n)$. Let $\lambda_{n} = \sum\limits_{i=1}^{n} b(i;n) $, $\lambda = \lim\limits_{n \to \infty}…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-18 Italo Simonelli , Lucia D. Simonelli

Large language models are increasingly used to predict human preferences in both scientific and business endeavors, yet current approaches rely exclusively on analyzing model outputs without considering the underlying mechanisms. Using…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Sarah Ball , Simeon Allmendinger , Niklas Kühl , Frauke Kreuter

Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-04-22 Thorsten Glüsenkamp

Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-04-19 Carlos Hernandez-Suarez , Osval Montsinos Lopez , Ramon Solano-Barajas

In Bayesian nonparametric inference, random discrete probability measures are commonly used as priors within hierarchical mixture models for density estimation and for inference on the clustering of the data. Recently, it has been shown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Stefano Favaro , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster

Analysis of low-degree polynomial algorithms is a powerful, newly-popular method for predicting computational thresholds in hypothesis testing problems. One limitation of current techniques for this analysis is their restriction to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Dmitriy Kunisky

We propose a new problem formulation which is similar to, but more informative than, the binary multiple-instance learning problem. In this setting, we are given groups of instances (described by feature vectors) along with estimates of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Hendrik Kuck , Nando de Freitas

We present a method using Feynman-like diagrams to calculate the statistical properties of random many-body potentials. This method provides a promising alternative to existing techniques typically applied to this class of problems, such as…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-06-23 Rupert Small , Sebastian Müller