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Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alf C. Zimmer

The present paper contributes to the development of the mathematical theory of epistemic updates using the tools of duality theory. Here we focus on Probabilistic Dynamic Epistemic Logic (PDEL). We dually characterize the product update…

In Reinforcement Learning, the optimal action at a given state is dependent on policy decisions at subsequent states. As a consequence, the learning targets evolve with time and the policy optimization process must be efficient at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Romain Laroche , Remi Tachet

In this short communication it is discussed the relation between disentangled states and algorithmic information theory aiming to construct an irreducible sentence whose length increases in a non-polynomial way when the number of qubits…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Rubens Viana Ramos

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic…

Unlearning seeks to remove specific knowledge from large language models (LLMs), but its effectiveness remains contested. On one side, "forgotten" knowledge can often be recovered through interventions such as light fine-tuning; on the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Qingjie Zhang , Haoting Qian , Zhicong Huang , Cheng Hong , Minlie Huang , Ke Xu , Chao Zhang , Han Qiu

If we accept Savage's set of axioms, then all uncertainties must be treated like ordinary probability. Savage espoused subjective probability, allowing, for example, the probability of Donald Trump's re-election. But Savage's probability…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2021-10-29 Yudi Pawitan , Youngjo Lee

There is much interest in providing probabilistic semantics for defaults but most approaches seem to suffer from one of two problems: either they require numbers, a problem defaults were intended to avoid, or they generate peculiar side…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Eric Neufeld , David L Poole

The problem of induction has persisted since Hume exposed the logical gap between repeated observation and universal inference. Traditional attempts to resolve it have oscillated between two extremes: the probabilistic optimism of Laplace…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-11-06 Tommaso Costa

Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Thomas J. Loredo , Robert L. Wolpert

Machine unlearning aims to remove sensitive or undesired data from large language models. However, recent studies suggest that unlearning is often shallow, claiming that removed knowledge can easily be recovered. In this work, we critically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Zhili Feng , Yixuan Even Xu , Alexander Robey , Robert Kirk , Xander Davies , Yarin Gal , Avi Schwarzschild , J. Zico Kolter

Probabilistic forecasts must sum to unity and cannot express ``I don't know.'' Possibility theory relaxes this constraint: a subnormal distribution explicitly measures how much of the plausibility budget remains unassigned, ignorance signal…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-03 John R. Lawson

This paper considers the notion of possible events which are insignificant in probabilistic analysis (i.e. events that have zero probability). The paper discusses the method of modal logic based on "possible worlds" and discusses a…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-11-08 Ben O'Neill

Widespread deployment of societal-scale machine learning systems necessitates a thorough understanding of the resulting long-term effects these systems have on their environment, including loss of trustworthiness, bias amplification, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Andrey Veprikov , Alexander Afanasiev , Anton Khritankov

In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-13 Michele Caprio , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Insup Lee

Effective adaptation to distribution shifts in training data is pivotal for sustaining robustness in neural networks, especially when removing specific biases or outdated information, a process known as machine unlearning. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Ling Han , Hao Huang , Dustin Scheinost , Mary-Anne Hartley , María Rodríguez Martínez

Predicting the evolution of a large system of units using its structure of interaction is a fundamental problem in complex system theory. And so is the problem of reconstructing the structure of interaction from temporal observations. Here,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-02-10 Charles Murphy , Vincent Thibeault , Antoine Allard , Patrick Desrosiers

A key issue in the handling of temporal data is the treatment of persistence; in most approaches it consists in inferring defeasible confusions by extrapolating from the actual knowledge of the history of the world; we propose here a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Dimiter Driankov , Jerome Lang

Behavioral experiments on the trust game have shown that trust and trustworthiness are universal among human beings, contradicting the prediction by assuming \emph{Homo economicus} in orthodox Economics. This means some mechanism must be at…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-20 Guozhong Zheng , Jiqiang Zhang , Jing Zhang , Weiran Cai , Li Chen

Statistical learning using imprecise probabilities is gaining more attention because it presents an alternative strategy for reducing irreplicable findings by freeing the user from the task of making up unwarranted high-resolution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-27 Ruobin Gong , Xiao-Li Meng