Related papers: Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A M…
This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…
We develop theory leading to testing procedures for the presence of a change point in the intraday volatility pattern. The new theory is developed in the framework of Functional Data Analysis. It is based on a model akin to the stochastic…
Undirected graphical models are a key component in the analysis of complex observational data in a large variety of disciplines. In many of these applications one is interested in estimating the undirected graphical model underlying a…
Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of selected portfolios among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al (2008). The required high-dimensional…
There is currently an increasing interest in large vector autoregressive (VAR) models. VARs are popular tools for macroeconomic forecasting and use of larger models has been demonstrated to often improve the forecasting ability compared to…
We use Fourier analysis to access risk in financial products. With it we analyze price changes of e.g. stocks. Via Fourier analysis we scrutinize quantitatively whether the frequency of change is higher than a change in (conserved) company…
Multifractal analysis is a forecasting technique used to study the scaling regularity properties of financial returns, to analyze the long-term memory and predictability of financial markets. In this paper, we propose a novel structural…
COVID-19 has impacted the economy of almost every country in the world. Of particular interest are the responses of the economic indicators of developing nations (such as BRICS) to the COVID-19 shock. As an extension to our earlier work on…
With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed…
In this paper we propose a class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) characterized by structural breaks (SVAR-WB). Together with standard restrictions on the parameters and on functions of them, we also consider constraints across…
Matrix-variate data of high dimensions are frequently observed in finance and economics, spanning extended time periods, such as the long-term data on international trade flows among numerous countries. To address potential structural…
High-dimensional multivariate time series are challenging due to the dependent and high-dimensional nature of the data, but in many applications there is additional structure that can be exploited to reduce computing time along with…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
We develop Bayesian machine learning methods for mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. This involves handling frequency mismatches and specifying functional relationships between many predictors and the dependent variable. We use…
We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility under Bayesian estimation. Three contributions emerge from our exercise. First, we show that a non-centred parameterization of stochastic…
This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…
As a quantitative characterization of the complicated economy, Macroeconomic Variables (MEVs), including GDP, inflation, unemployment, income, spending, interest rate, etc., are playing a crucial role in banks' portfolio management and…
We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks…