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Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some…
The LASSO is a widely used statistical methodology for simultaneous estimation and variable selection. In the last years, many authors analyzed this technique from a theoretical and applied point of view. We introduce and study the adaptive…
We consider the problem of making nonparametric inference in a class of multi-dimensional diffusions in divergence form, from low-frequency data. Statistical analysis in this setting is notoriously challenging due to the intractability of…
We consider a classic two-state switching diffusion model from a single-particle tracking perspective. The mean and the variance of the time-averaged mean square displacement (TAMSD) are computed exactly. When the measurement time (i.e.,…
Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…
We study the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameters of a stochastic differential equation, with both drift and diffusion coefficients constant on the positive and negative axis, yet discontinuous at zero. This threshold…
In many applications, it is often necessary to sample the mean value of certain quantity with respect to a probability measure {\mu} on the level set of a smooth function $\xi: \mathbb{R}^d\rightarrow \mathbb{R}^k$, $1\le k < d$. A…
Penalized estimation methods for diffusion processes and dependent data have recently gained significant attention due to their effectiveness in handling high-dimensional stochastic systems. In this work, we introduce an adaptive…
We deal with a model selection problem for structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables for diffusion processes. Based on the asymptotic expansion of the marginal quasi-log likelihood, we propose two types of quasi-Bayesian…
In this paper we study the large deviations of time averaged mean square displacement (TAMSD) for Gaussian processes. The theory of large deviations is related to the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random…
We propose a tractable semiparametric estimation method for structural dynamic discrete choice models. The distribution of additive utility shocks in the proposed framework is modeled by location-scale mixtures of extreme value…
This paper addresses the following question: given a sample of i.i.d. random variables with finite variance, can one construct an estimator of the unknown mean that performs nearly as well as if the data were normally distributed? One of…
We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…
This paper generalizes a part of the theory of $Z$-estimation which has been developed mainly in the context of modern empirical processes to the case of stochastic processes, typically, semimartingales. We present a general theorem to…
We construct a quasi likelihood analysis for diffusions under the high-frequency sampling over a finite time interval. For this, we prove a polynomial type large deviation inequality for the quasi likelihood random field. Then it becomes…
A truncated sequential procedure is constructed for estimating the drift coefficient at a given state point based on discrete data of ergodic diffusion process. A nonasymptotic upper bound is obtained for a pointwise absolute error risk.…
Diffusion models, which convert noise into new data instances by learning to reverse a diffusion process, have become a cornerstone in contemporary generative modeling. In this work, we develop non-asymptotic convergence theory for a…
We research adaptive maximum likelihood-type estimation for an ergodic diffusion process where the observation is contaminated by noise. This methodology leads to the asymptotic independence of the estimators for the variance of observation…
We consider nonsynchronous sampling of parameterized stochastic regression models, which contain stochastic differential equations. Constructing a quasi-likelihood function, we prove that the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayes…
This article studies the quasi-stationary behaviour of absorbed one-dimensional diffusion processes with killing on $[0,\infty)$. We obtain criteria for the exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in total…