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The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-30 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Sayan Mukherjee , David Dunson

Inference of latent feature models in the Bayesian nonparametric setting is generally difficult, especially in high dimensional settings, because it usually requires proposing features from some prior distribution. In special cases, where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-14 Michael Minyi Zhang , Sinead A. Williamson , Fernando Perez-Cruz

This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-09 Zoé van Havre , Judith Rousseau , Nicole White , Kerrie Mengersen

In MCMC methods, such as the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, the Gibbs sampler, or recent adaptive methods, many different strategies can be proposed, often associated in practice to unknown rates of convergence. In this paper we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Didier Chauveau , Pierre Vandekerkhove

We present a simulation methodology for Bayesian estimation of rate parameters in Markov jump processes arising for example in stochastic kinetic models. To handle the problem of missing components and measurement errors in observed data,…

Computation · Statistics 2010-09-01 Michael Amrein , Hans R. Kuensch

Learning in deep models using Bayesian methods has generated significant attention recently. This is largely because of the feasibility of modern Bayesian methods to yield scalable learning and inference, while maintaining a measure of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-25 Chunyuan Li , Changyou Chen , Kai Fan , Lawrence Carin

A goal of systems biology is to understand the dynamics of intracellular systems. Stochastic chemical kinetic models are often utilized to accurately capture the stochastic nature of these systems due to low numbers of molecules. Collecting…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-17 Jarad Niemi , Matthew Wheeler

We have developed a technique to accelerate the acquisition of effectively uncorrelated configurations for off-lattice models of dense polymer melts which makes use of both parallel tempering and large scale Monte Carlo moves. The method is…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Alex Bunker , Burkhard Duenweg

In the field of sampling algorithms, MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods are widely used when direct sampling is not possible. However, multimodality of target distributions often leads to slow convergence and mixing. One common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Holden Lee , Zeyu Shen

We consider state and parameter estimation in multiple target tracking problems with data association uncertainties and unknown number of targets. We show how the problem can be recast into a conditionally linear Gaussian state-space model…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-05 Juho Kokkala , Simo Särkkä

We study the applicability of the {\it parallel tempering method} (PT) in the investigation of first- order phase transitions. In this method, replicas of the same system are simulated simultaneously at different temperatures and the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Carlos E. Fiore

This paper presents parallel-in-time state estimation methods for systems with Slow-Rate inTegrated Measurements (SRTM). Integrated measurements are common in various applications, and they appear in analysis of data resulting from…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-02 Fatemeh Yaghoobi , Simo Särkkä

In this paper we propose a general framework of performing MCMC with only a mini-batch of data. We show by estimating the Metropolis-Hasting ratio with only a mini-batch of data, one is essentially sampling from the true posterior raised to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-23 Dangna Li , Wing H Wong

For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Shamriddha De , Joyee Ghosh

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Caroline Tatsuoka , Minglei Yang , Dongbin Xiu , Guannan Zhang

The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-10 Andrew Golightly , Emma Bradley , Tom Lowe , Colin S. Gillespie

Extending Bayesian optimization to batch evaluation can enable the designer to make the most use of parallel computing technology. However, most of current batch approaches do not scale well with the batch size. That is, their performances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Dawei Zhan , Zhaoxi Zeng , Shuoxiao Wei , Ping Wu

Parallel tempering, also known as replica exchange sampling, is an important method for simulating complex systems. In this algorithm simulations are conducted in parallel at a series of temperatures, and the key feature of the algorithm is…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-14 Paul Dupuis , Yufei Liu , Nuria Plattner , J. D. Doll

Simulated tempering (ST) is an established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from a multimodal density $\pi(\theta)$. Typically, ST involves introducing an auxiliary variable $k$ taking values in a finite subset of $[0,1]$…

Computation · Statistics 2008-11-03 Robert B. Gramacy , Richard J. Samworth , Ruth King

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Dan Cunha , Mark Friedl , Luis Carvalho