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We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-03-28 Fabrizio Altarelli , Alfredo Braunstein , Luca Dall'Asta , Alejandro Lage-Castellanos , Riccardo Zecchina

Expectation maximisation (EM) is usually thought of as an unsupervised learning method for estimating the parameters of a mixture distribution, however it can also be used for supervised learning when class labels are available. As such, EM…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Graham W. Pulford

In an era of unprecedented deluge of (mostly unstructured) data, graphs are proving more and more useful, across the sciences, as a flexible abstraction to capture complex relationships between complex objects. One of the main challenges…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2016-10-17 Alaa Saade

We present a dynamic prediction framework for binary sequences that is based on a Bernoulli generalization of the auto-regressive process. Our approach lends itself easily to variants of the standard link prediction problem for a sequence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-24 Xiaohan Yan , Avleen S. Bijral

This paper introduces a probabilistic approach for tracking the dynamics of unweighted and directed graphs using state-space models (SSMs). Unlike conventional topology inference methods that assume static graphs and generate point-wise…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-13 Victor M. Tenorio , Elvin Isufi , Geert Leus , Antonio G. Marques

Repeating patterns of spike sequences from a neuronal network have been proposed to be useful in the reconstruction of the network topology. Reverberations in a physiologically realistic model with various physical connection topologies…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2014-07-15 Hao Song , Chun-Chung Chen , Jyh-Jang Sun , Pik-Yin Lai , C. K. Chan

In order to detect patterns in real networks, randomized graph ensembles that preserve only part of the topology of an observed network are systematically used as fundamental null models. However, their generation is still problematic. The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-01-14 Tiziano Squartini , Diego Garlaschelli

Network clustering reveals the organization of a network or corresponding complex system with elements represented as vertices and interactions as edges in a (directed, weighted) graph. Although the notion of clustering can be somewhat…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Yongjin Park , Joel S. Bader

In this paper, we consider the problem of exploring structural regularities of networks by dividing the nodes of a network into groups such that the members of each group have similar patterns of connections to other groups. Specifically,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-30 Hua-Wei Shen , Xue-Qi Cheng , Jia-Feng Guo

To unravel the driving patterns of networks, the most popular models rely on community detection algorithms. However, these approaches are generally unable to reproduce the structural features of the network. Therefore, attempts are always…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Martina Contisciani , Hadiseh Safdari , Caterina De Bacco

Statistical analysis of social networks provides valuable insights into complex network interactions across various scientific disciplines. However, accurate modeling of networks remains challenging due to the heavy computational burden and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Helal El-Zaatari , Fei Yu , Michael R Kosorok

A plethora of methods have been developed in the past two decades to infer the underlying network structure of an interconnected system from its collective dynamics. However, methods capable of inferring nonpairwise interactions are only…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-03-24 Robin Delabays , Giulia De Pasquale , Florian Dörfler , Yuanzhao Zhang

A multi-scale approach to the inverse reconstruction of a pattern's microstructure is reported. Instead of a correlation function, a pair of entropic descriptors (EDs) is proposed for stochastic optimization method. The first of them…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-02-16 R. Piasecki

Inferring a graphical model or network from observational data from a large number of variables is a well studied problem in machine learning and computational statistics. In this paper we consider a version of this problem that is relevant…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-06 Andy Dahl , Victoria Hore , Valentina Iotchkova , Jonathan Marchini

In order to identify a system (module) embedded in a dynamic network, one has to formulate a multiple-input estimation problem that necessitates certain nodes to be measured and included as predictor inputs. However, some of these nodes may…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-24 Karthik R. Ramaswamy , Giulio Bottegal , Paul M. J. Van den Hof

This paper addresses the estimation of parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. The task is usually tackled by running the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm several times in order to obtain a high log-likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Giorgio Corani , Cassio P. De Campos

In this article, we present a method to reconstruct the topology of a partially observed radial network of linear dynamical systems with bi-directional interactions. Our approach exploits the structure of the inverse power spectral density…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-07-13 Saurav Talukdar , Deepjyoti Deka , Michael Chertkov , Murti Salapaka

We consider a problem of inferring contact network from nodal states observed during an epidemiological process. In a black--box Bayesian optimisation framework this problem reduces to a discrete likelihood optimisation over the set of…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-05 Sergey Dolgov , Dmitry Savostyanov

Stochastic simulation algorithms such as likelihood weighting often give fast, accurate approximations to posterior probabilities in probabilistic networks, and are the methods of choice for very large networks. Unfortunately, the special…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-26 Keiji Kanazawa , Daphne Koller , Stuart Russell

Mechanistic network models specify the mechanisms by which networks grow and change, allowing researchers to investigate complex systems using both simulation and analytical techniques. Unfortunately, it is difficult to write likelihoods…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Jonathan Larson , Jukka-Pekka Onnela
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