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A new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm for Bayesian updating of model parameters is proposed in this paper, which combines the ABC principles with the technique of Subset Simulation for efficient rare-event simulation, first…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a widely used inference method in Bayesian statistics to bypass the point-wise computation of the likelihood. In this paper we develop theoretical bounds for the distance between the statistics used…
The "rare type match problem" is the situation in which the suspect's DNA profile, matching the DNA profile of the crime stain, is not in the database of reference. The evaluation of this match in the light of the two competing hypotheses…
The likelihood-free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms, are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is the most popular approach to inferring parameters in the case where the data model is specified in the form of a simulator. It is not possible to directly implement standard Monte Carlo methods for…
In this article, we focus on Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson processes with linear-fractional offspring distributions. At a fixed generation, we consider a sample of the individuals alive, drawn in two different ways: either through Bernoulli…
Finite mixture models are used in statistics and other disciplines, but inference for mixture models is challenging due, in part, to the multimodality of the likelihood function and the so-called label switching problem. We propose…
A method was developed for Bayesian inference of species phylogeny using the multi-species coalescent model. To improve the mixing properties of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that traverses the space of species trees, we…
Ancestral inference for branching processes in random environments involves determining the ancestor distribution parameters using the population sizes of descendant generations. In this paper, we introduce a new methodology for ancestral…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Motivated by the increasing use of and rapid changes in array technologies, we consider the prediction problem of fitting a linear regression relating a continuous outcome $Y$ to a large number of covariates $\mathbf {X}$, for example,…
Statistical modeling is a key component in the extraction of physical results from lattice field theory calculations. Although the general models used are often strongly motivated by physics, many model variations can frequently be…
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be viewed as an analytic approximation of an intractable likelihood coupled with an elementary simulation step. Such a view, combined with a suitable instrumental prior distribution permits…
The standard paradigm for the analysis of genome-wide association studies involves carrying out association tests at both typed and imputed SNPs. These methods will not be optimal for detecting the signal of association at SNPs that are not…
In this paper we propose a Bayesian approach for inference about dependence of high throughput gene expression. Our goals are to use prior knowledge about pathways to anchor inference about dependence among genes; to account for this…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to…
Also known as likelihood-free methods, approximate Bayesian computational (ABC) methods have appeared in the past ten years as the most satisfactory approach to untractable likelihood problems, first in genetics then in a broader spectrum…
The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…