Related papers: Causal Inference in Disease Spread across a Hetero…
We study the problems of estimating the past and future evolutions of two diffusion processes that spread concurrently on a network. Specifically, given a known network $G=(V, \overrightarrow{E})$ and a (possibly noisy) snapshot…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
Networks of person-person contacts form the substrate along which infectious diseases spread. Most network-based studies of the spread focus on the impact of variations in degree (the number of contacts an individual has). However, other…
Short-time human travel behaviour can be described by a power law with respect to distance. We incorporate this information in space-time models for infectious disease surveillance data to better capture the dynamics of disease spread. Two…
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…
Spatio-temporal pathogen spread is often partially observed at the metapopulation scale. Available data correspond to proxies and are incomplete, censored and heterogeneous. Moreover, representing such biological systems often leads to…
Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…
The rate of adoption of new information depends on reinforcement from multiple sources in a way that often cannot be described by simple contagion processes. In such cases, contagion is said to be complex. Complex contagion happens in the…
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…
Our work stems from the consideration that the spreading of a disease is modulated by the individual's perception of the infected neighborhood and his/her strategy to avoid being infected as well. We introduced a general ``cellular agent''…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…
The movie Ben-Hur highlights the dynamics of contagion associated with leprosy, a pattern of forced aggregation driven by the emergence of symptoms and the fear of contagion. The 2014 Ebola outbreaks reaffirmed the dynamics of…
This paper gives an introduction to rule-based modelling applied to topics in infectious diseases. Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in…
Exploring the internal mechanism of information spreading is critical for understanding and controlling the process. Traditional spreading models often assume individuals play the same role in the spreading process. In reality, however,…
A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…
One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…
Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…