Related papers: Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass …
The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is…
The so-called drag-based model (DBM) simulates analytically the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space and allows the prediction of their arrival times and impact speeds at any point in the heliosphere…
The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind…
Forecasting the arrival time of CMEs and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is, due to its simplicity and calculation speed, the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key drivers of space weather events, posing risks to both space-borne and ground-based systems. Accurate prediction of their arrival time at Earth is critical for impact mitigation. To this end,…
Accurately predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth based on remote images is of critical significance in the study of space weather. In this paper, we make a statistical study of 21 Earth directed CMEs,…
Forecasting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is vital for protecting satellites, power systems, and human spaceflight. We present HELIOPANDA: Heliospheric Observer for Predicting CME Arrival via Nonlinear Drag Assimilation, a…
The forecast of the time of arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the…
The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HI) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are…
One of the goals of Space Weather studies is to achieve a better understanding of impulsive phenomena, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), in order to improve our ability to forecast them and mitigate the risk to our technologically…
The arrival time prediction of Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is an area of active research. Many methods with varying levels of complexity have been developed to predict CME arrival. However, the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions…
The Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of coronal mass ejections (CME) at Earth is a key parameter due to the space weather phenomena associated with the CME arrival, such as intense geomagnetic storms. Despite the incremental use of new instrumentation…
The prediction of the arrival time for fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is highly desirable in space weather studies. In this paper, we use two shock propagation models, i.e. Data Guided Shock Time Of Arrival…
In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to…
Context. In the scope of space weather forecasting, it is crucial to be able to more reliably predict the arrival time, speed, and magnetic field configuration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From the time a CME is launched, the dominant…
Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, Bz. Predicting the strength and duration of Bz inside a CME with sufficient accuracy…
The solar wind drag-based model is a widely used framework for predicting the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) through interplanetary space. This model primarily considers the aerodynamic drag exerted by the solar wind on CMEs.…
Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary…
In recent years, ensemble modeling has been widely employed in space weather to estimate uncertainties in forecasts. We here focus on the ensemble modeling of CME arrival times and arrival velocities using a drag-based model, which is…
The Fixed-\Phi (F\Phi) and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods are two methods to determine the average direction and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from time-elongation tracks produced by Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), such as the…