Related papers: Characterization of catastrophic instabilities: Ma…
Sharp changes in time series representing market dynamics are studied by means of the self--similar analysis suggested earlier by the authors. These sharp changes are market booms and crashes. Such crises phenomena in markets are analogous…
Financial markets, being spectacular examples of complex systems, display rich correlation structures among price returns of different assets. The correlation structures change drastically, akin to phase transitions in physical phenomena,…
In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…
We identify a robust structural signature of stock markets during exogenous shock events by analyzing collective return dynamics across G5 countries. Using Random Matrix Theory, we introduce the complexity gap, defined as the difference…
The aim of this work is to build financial crisis indicators based on spectral properties of the dynamics of market data. After choosing an optimal size for a rolling window, the historical market data in this window is seen every trading…
We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the…
We propose a picture of stock market crashes as critical points in a hierachical system with discrete scaling. The critical exponent is then complex, leading to log-periodic fluctuations in stock market indexes. We present ``experimental''…
To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures…
Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means that…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and…
Prediction of events in financial markets is every investor's dream and, usually, wishful thinking. From a more general, economic and societal viewpoint, the identification of indicators for large events is highly desirable to assess…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
In this brief review, we critically examine the recent work done on correlation-based networks in financial systems. The structure of empirical correlation matrices constructed from the financial market data changes as the individual stock…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets.…
A model of an evolving network of interacting molecular species is shown to exhibit repeated rounds of crashes in which several species get rapidly depopulated, followed by recoveries. The network inevitably self-organizes into an…
We propose a non linear Langevin equation as a model for stock market fluctuations and crashes. This equation is based on an identification of the different processes influencing the demand and supply, and their mathematical transcription.…
The credit crisis roiling the world's financial markets will likely take years and entire careers to fully understand and analyze. A short empirical investigation of the current trends, however, demonstrates that the losses in certain…
The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…