Related papers: News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: …
The paper proposes a method of financial time series forecasting taking into account the semantics of news. For the semantic analysis of financial news the sampling of negative and positive words in economic sense was formed based on…
We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting…
This research studies the impact of online news on social and economic consumer perceptions through semantic network analysis. Using over 1.8 million online articles on Italian media covering four years, we calculate the semantic importance…
The goal of this paper is to evaluate the informational content of sentiment extracted from news articles about the state of the economy. We propose a fine-grained aspect-based sentiment analysis that has two main characteristics: 1) we…
This study proposes a new method of incorporating emotions from newspaper articles into macroeconomic forecasts, attempting to forecast industrial production and consumer prices leveraging narrative and sentiment from global newspapers. For…
Predicting the economy's short-term dynamics -- a vital input to economic agents' decision-making process -- often uses lagged indicators in linear models. This is typically sufficient during normal times but could prove inadequate during…
The increasing influence of unstructured external information, such as news articles, on stock prices has attracted growing attention in financial markets. Despite recent advances, most existing newsbased forecasting models represent all…
The use of robo-readers to analyze news texts is an emerging technology trend in computational finance. In recent research, a substantial effort has been invested to develop sophisticated financial polarity-lexicons that can be used to…
Macroeconomic nowcasting sits at the intersection of traditional econometrics, data-rich information systems, and AI applications in business, economics, and policy. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly used to nowcast quarterly…
In this paper we investigate the impact of news to predict extreme financial returns using high frequency data. We consider several model specifications differing for the dynamic property of the underlying stochastic process as well as for…
We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…
Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…
Large language models are reshaping quantitative investing by turning unstructured financial information into evidence-grounded signals and executable decisions. This survey synthesizes research with a focus on equity return prediction and…
Financial news plays a critical role in the information diffusion process in financial markets and is a known driver of stock prices. However, the information in each news article is not necessarily self-contained, often requiring a broader…
Reasonable pricing of data products enables data trading platforms to maximize revenue and foster the growth of the data trading market. The textual semantics of data products are vital for pricing and contain significant value that remains…
This study leverages narrative from global newspapers to construct theme-based knowledge graphs about world events, demonstrating that features extracted from such graphs improve forecasts of industrial production in three large economies…
Advanced machine learning models have recently achieved high predictive accuracy for weather and climate prediction. However, these complex models often lack inherent transparency and interpretability, acting as "black boxes" that impede…
Share valuations are known to adjust to new information entering the market, such as regulatory disclosures. We study whether the language of such news items can improve short-term and especially long-term (24 months) forecasts of stock…
We forecast the full conditional distribution of macroeconomic outcomes by systematically integrating three key principles: using high-dimensional data with appropriate regularization, adopting rigorous out-of-sample validation procedures,…
The mainstream media has much leeway in what it chooses to cover and how it covers it. These choices have real-world consequences on what people know and their subsequent behaviors. However, the lack of objective measures to evaluate…