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Until recently, uncertainty quantification in low energy nuclear theory was typically performed using frequentist approaches. However in the last few years, the field has shifted toward Bayesian statistics for evaluating confidence…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2019-07-24 G. B. King , A. E. Lovell , L. Neufcourt , F. M. Nunes

One of the big challenges in astrophysics is the comparison of complex simulations to observations. As many codes do not directly generate observables (e.g. hydrodynamic simulations), the last step in the modelling process is often a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-08 Frederik Beaujean , Hans C. Eggers , Wolfgang E. Kerzendorf

High dimensional statistics deals with the challenge of extracting structured information from complex model settings. Compared with the growing number of frequentist methodologies, there are rather few theoretically optimal Bayes methods…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-21 Chao Gao , Aad W. van der Vaart , Harrison H. Zhou

Optical-model potentials (OMPs) continue to play a key role in nuclear reaction calculations. However, the uncertainty of phenomenological OMPs in widespread use -- inherent to any parametric model trained on data -- has not been fully…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2023-01-06 C. D. Pruitt , J. E. Escher , R. Rahman

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-25 Futoshi Futami , Tomoharu Iwata

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

Nucleon-Nucleon potentials are commonplace in nuclear physics and are determined from a finite number of experimental data with limited precision sampling the scattering process. We study the statistical assumptions implicit in the standard…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2014-07-02 R. Navarro Perez , J. E. Amaro , E. Ruiz Arriola

We present theoretical predictions for electron scattering on oxygen and calcium isotopic chains. The calculations are done within the framework of the distorted-wave Born approximation and the proton and neutron density distributions are…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2013-07-16 Andrea Meucci , Matteo Vorabbi , Paolo Finelli , Carlotta Giusti , Franco Davide Pacati

We present an account of the current status of the theoretical treatment of inclusive $(d,p)$ reactions in the breakup-fusion formalism, pointing to some applications and making the connection with current experimental capabilities. Three…

Nuclear reactions at intermediate beam energies are often interpreted using the eikonal model. In the analysis of complex reaction probes, where few-body reaction methods are needed, the eikonal method may be used as an efficient way for…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2025-07-18 Daniel Shiu , Chloë Hebborn , Filomena M. Nunes

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

In this work, we investigate the estimation of a parameter $f$ in PDEs using Bayesian procedures, and focus on posterior distributions constructed using Gaussian process priors, and its variational approximation. We establish contraction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Yuxin Fan , Bangti Jin

A substantial fraction of systematic uncertainties in neutrino oscillation experiments stem from the lack of precision in modeling the nuclear target in neutrino-nucleus interactions. Whilst this has driven significant progress in the…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2025-01-15 J. Chakrani , S. Dolan , M. Buizza Avanzini , A. Ershova , L. Koch , K. McFarland , G. D. Megias , L. Munteanu , L. Pickering , K. Skwarczynski , V. Q. Nguyen , C. Wret

The use of heteronuclear models are often viewed as ways to improve the predictive ability and parameter transferability of advanced association models, such as those derived from the Statistical Associating Fluid Theory (SAFT). Indeed,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-10 Emanuel A. Crespo , Joao A. P. Coutinho

The paper presents the results of experiments on measuring the cross sections for elastic scattering and nucleon transfer channels in the $^{6}$Li + $^{9}$Be reaction at an incident energy of 68 MeV: $^{9}$Be($^{6}$Li,$^{6}$Li)$^{9}$Be,…

Bayesian analyses require that all variable model parameters are given a prior probability distribution. This can pose a challenge for analyses where multiple experiments are combined if these experiments use different parametrisations for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Lukas Koch

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Fengshuo Zhang , Chao Gao

New physics contributions to the (anti)neutrino-nucleon elastic scattering process can be constrained by precision measurements, with controlled Standard Model uncertainties. In a large class of new physics models, interactions involving…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-05-24 Oleksandr Tomalak , Minerba Betancourt , Kaushik Borah , Richard J. Hill , Thomas Junk

Parameters of the nuclear density functional theory (DFT) models are usually adjusted to experimental data. As a result they carry certain theoretical error, which, as a consequence, carries out to the predicted quantities. In this work we…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2015-06-22 Markus Kortelainen