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This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok

In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-17 Jean-Pierre Fouque , Ning Ning

Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-02-23 Andrew J. Majda , Di Qi

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

In this paper, an optimization problem with uncertain constraint coefficients is considered. Possibility theory is used to model the uncertainty. Namely, a joint possibility distribution in constraint coefficient realizations, called…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-07 Romain Guillaume , Adam Kasperski , Pawel Zielinski

Inverse problems play a key role in modern image/signal processing methods. However, since they are generally ill-conditioned or ill-posed due to lack of observations, their solutions may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Analysing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-09 Xiaohao Cai , Marcelo Pereyra , Jason D. McEwen

We introduce the concept of a control contraction metric, extending contraction analysis to constructive nonlinear control design. We derive sufficient conditions for exponential stabilizability of all trajectories of a nonlinear control…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-02-09 Ian R. Manchester , Jean-Jacques E. Slotine

Cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in different areas, especially intelligent education, to measure users' proficiency levels on knowledge concepts, based on which users can get personalized instructions. As the measurement is…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Fei Wang , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen , Chuanren Liu , Zhenya Huang , Jinze Wu , Shijin Wang

In this paper, we introduce a new technique that combines two popular methods to estimate uncertainty in object detection. Quantifying uncertainty is critical in real-world robotic applications. Traditional detection models can be ambiguous…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-30 Zongyao Lyu , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi

Fitting models to data is an important part of the practice of science. Advances in machine learning have made it possible to fit more -- and more complex -- models, but have also exacerbated a problem: when multiple models fit the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Alexandre René , André Longtin

We develop an indirect-adaptive model predictive control algorithm for uncertain linear systems subject to constraints. The system is modeled as a polytopic linear parameter varying system where the convex combination vector is constant but…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-09-25 Stefano Di Cairano

To date, most probabilistic reasoning systems have relied on a fixed belief network constructed at design time. The network is used by an application program as a representation of (in)dependencies in the domain. Probabilistic inference…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Robert P. Goldman , John S. Breese

This paper presents an extension to the nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Tracking scheme able to guarantee convergence even in cases of non-convex output admissible sets. This is achieved by incorporating a convexifying homeomorphism…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-15 Andres Cotorruelo , Daniel R. Ramirez , Daniel Limon , Emanuele Garone

In this paper, a simple heuristic is proposed for the design of uncertainty aware predictive controllers for nonlinear models involving uncertain parameters. The method relies on Machine Learning-based approximation of ideal deterministic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-05 Mazen Alamir

We consider the task of forecasting an infinite sequence of future observations based on some number of past observations, where the probability measure generating the observations is "suspected" to satisfy one or more of a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Vanessa Kosoy

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Xinjia Chen

This paper deals with nonlinear mechanics of an elevator brake system subjected to uncertainties. A deterministic model that relates the braking force with uncertain parameters is deduced from mechanical equilibrium conditions. In order to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Piotr Wolszczak , Pawel Lonkwic , Americo Cunha , Grzegorz Litak , Szymon Molski

A convex optimization model predicts an output from an input by solving a convex optimization problem. The class of convex optimization models is large, and includes as special cases many well-known models like linear and logistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-19 Akshay Agrawal , Shane Barratt , Stephen Boyd