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Related papers: Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based P…

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To create early warning capabilities for upcoming Space Weather disturbances, we have selected a dataset of 61 emerging active regions, which allows us to identify characteristic features in the evolution of acoustic power density to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-25 Spiridon Kasapis , Irina N. Kitiashvili , Alexander G. Kosovichev , John T. Stefan , Bhairavi Apte

Solar active regions (ARs) that produce major flares typically exhibit strong plasma shear flows around photospheric magnetic polarity inversion lines (MPILs). It is therefore important to quantitatively measure such photospheric shear…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-10-29 Sung-Hong Park , Jordan A. Guerra , Peter T. Gallagher , Manolis K. Georgoulis , D. Shaun Bloomfield

Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, which occur due to a rapid destabilization and reconnection of the magnetic field. While pre-flare signatures and trends have been investigated from magnetic observations prior…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-18 Kara L. Kniezewski , Emily I. Mason , Daniel J. Emmons , Kyle E. Fitch , Seth H. Garland

Considering the grid manager's point of view, needs in terms of prediction of intermittent energy like the photovoltaic resource can be distinguished according to the considered horizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-07-24 Cyril Voyant , Christophe Paoli , Marc Muselli , Marie Laure Nivet

We develop forecast models of daily probability of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-25 Daye Lim , Yong-Jae Moon , Jongyeob Park , Eunsu Park , Kangjin Lee , Jin-Yi Lee , Soojeong Jang

Operational flare forecasting aims at providing predictions that can be used to make decisions, typically at a daily scale, about the space weather impacts of flare occurrence. This study shows that video-based deep learning can be used for…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-09-13 Sabrina Guastavino , Francesco Marchetti , Federico Benvenuto , Cristina Campi , Michele Piana

A statistical study is carried out on the photospheric magnetic nonpotentiality in solar active regions and its relationship with associated flares. We select 2173 photospheric vector magnetograms from 1106 active regions observed by the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-08-10 Xiao Yang , HongQi Zhang , Yu Gao , Juan Guo , GangHua Lin

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-22 Grégoire Francisco , Sabrina Guastavino , Teresa Barata , João Fernandes , Dario Del Moro

It is essential to find solar predictive methods to massively insert renewable energies on the electrical distribution grid. The goal of this study is to find the best methodology allowing predicting with high accuracy the hourly global…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-20 Cyril Voyant , C. Darras , Marc Muselli , Christophe Paoli , Marie Laure Nivet , Philippe Poggi

Current solar flare predictions often lack precise quantification of their reliability, resulting in frequent false alarms, particularly when dealing with datasets skewed towards extreme events. To improve the trustworthiness of space…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-10 Jinsu Hong , Chetraj Pandey , Berkay Aydin

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections, originating from solar active regions (ARs), are the primary drivers of space weather and can disrupt technological systems. Forecasting efforts heavily rely on photospheric magnetic field data from…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-08 Maxim Korelov , Irina Knyazeva , Evgenii Kurochkin , Nikolay Makarenko , Denis Derkach

Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and has captivated the attention of a wide spectrum of researchers due to recent advances in both remote sensing as well as machine learning and deep learning…

Space Physics · Physics 2022-09-19 Chetraj Pandey , Anli Ji , Rafal A. Angryk , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Berkay Aydin

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-04-05 Rong Lin , Zhekai Luo , Jiansen He , Lun Xie , Chuanpeng Hou , Shuwei Chen

Major solar flares are abrupt surges in the Sun's magnetic flux, presenting significant risks to technological infrastructure. In view of this, effectively predicting major flares from solar active region magnetic field data through machine…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-02 Onur Vural , Shah Muhammad Hamdi , Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi

Intermittent magnetohydrodynamical turbulence is most likely at work in the magnetized solar atmosphere. As a result, an array of scaling and multi-scaling image-processing techniques can be used to measure the expected self-organization of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Manolis K. Georgoulis

The variation of solar irradiance is one of the natural forcing mechanisms of the terrestrial climate. Hence, the time-dependent solar irradiance is an important input parameter for climate modelling. The solar surface magnetic field is a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-11 Omar Ashamari , Rami Qahwaji , Stan Ipson , Micha Scholl , Omar Nibouche , Margit Haberreiter

We developed Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models to predict the formation of active regions (ARs) on the solar surface. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity, and the magnetic field observations from the Solar Dynamics…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-27 Spiridon Kasapis , Irina N. Kitiashvili , Alexander G. Kosovichev , John T. Stefan

The input of the Solar wind models plays a significant role in accurate solar wind predictions at 1 AU. This work introduces a synthetic magnetogram produced from a dynamo model as an input for Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. We…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-10-13 Kalpa Henadhira Arachchige , Ofer Cohen , Andrés Muñoz Jaramillo , Anthony R. Yeates

Knowing the behavior of solar radiation at a geographic location is essential for the use of energy from the sun using photovoltaic systems; however, the number of stations for measuring meteorological parameters and for determining the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-13 Luis Eduardo Ordoñez Palacios , Víctor Bucheli Guerrero , Hugo Ordoñez

Monitoring of the Sun and its activity is a task of growing importance in the frame of space weather research and awareness. Major space weather disturbances at Earth have their origin in energetic outbursts from the Sun: solar flares,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-02-09 Astrid M. Veronig , Werner Pötzi