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In this paper, we present a novel Model Predictive Control method for autonomous robots subject to arbitrary forms of uncertainty. The proposed Risk-Aware Model Predictive Path Integral (RA-MPPI) control utilizes the Conditional…
In causal inference, estimating the average treatment effect is a central objective, and in the context of competing risks data, this effect can be quantified by the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) difference. While…
We propose a distributionally robust index tracking model with the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) penalty. The model combines the idea of distributionally robust optimization for data uncertainty and the CVaR penalty to avoid large…
We consider an online stochastic game with risk-averse agents whose goal is to learn optimal decisions that minimize the risk of incurring significantly high costs. Specifically, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure…
The difference-in-differences (DiD) design is a quasi-experimental method for estimating treatment effects. In staggered DiD with multiple treatment groups and periods, estimation based on the two-way fixed effects model yields negative…
We test a regime-conditional functional-form restriction on aggregate risk-exposure dynamics implied by VaR-constrained intermediary models: exposures contract multiplicatively when capital constraints bind and grow additively…
In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…
Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates $x$) of training and testing samples $\mathrm{p}_\text{tr}(x)$ and $\mathrm{p}_\text{te}(x)$ are different but the label…
We study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with a fixed risk tolerance $\tau$. Prior theoretical work studying risk-sensitive RL focuses on the tabular Markov Decision…
Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to reduce estimation bias of treatment effects for observational studies. Previous research has shown that propensity score methods consistently estimate the marginal hazard ratio for…
Consider a scenario where we have access to train data with both covariates and outcomes while test data only contains covariates. In this scenario, our primary aim is to predict the missing outcomes of the test data. With this objective in…
Stratification is commonly employed in clinical trials to reduce the chance covariate imbalances and increase the precision of the treatment effect estimate. We propose a general framework for constructing the confidence interval (CI) for a…
This article extends the optimal covariance steering (CS) problem for discrete time linear stochastic systems modeled using moment-based ambiguity sets. To hedge against the uncertainty in the state distributions while performing covariance…
In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…
The portfolio optimization problem is a critical issue in asset management and has long been studied. Markowitz's mean-variance model has fundamental limitations, such as the assumption of a normal distribution for returns and sensitivity…
The purpose of this paper is introducing rigorous methods and formulas for bilateral counterparty risk credit valuation adjustments (CVA's) on interest-rate portfolios. In doing so, we summarize the general arbitrage-free valuation…
We develop a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for insurance loss reserving that formulates reserve setting as a finite-horizon sequential decision problem under claim development uncertainty, macroeconomic stress, and solvency…
The ability to make optimal decisions under uncertainty remains important across a variety of disciplines from portfolio management to power engineering. This generally implies applying some safety margins on uncertain parameters that may…
A default assumption in many machine learning scenarios is that the training and test samples are drawn from the same probability distribution. However, such an assumption is often violated in the real world due to non-stationarity of the…
Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…