Related papers: Demographic Modeling Via 3-dimensional Markov Chai…
This research presents an analysis of the demographic risk related to future membership patterns in pension funds with restricted entrance, financed under a pay-as-you-go scheme. The paper, therefore, proposes a stochastic model for…
Retirement prediction helps individuals and institutions make informed financial, lifestyle, and workforce decisions based on estimated retirement portfolios. This paper attempts to predict retirement using Monte Carlo simulations, allowing…
This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…
State-space models are commonly used to describe different forms of ecological data. We consider the case of count data with observation errors. For such data the system process is typically multi-dimensional consisting of coupled Markov…
Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income…
Agent-based modeling (ABM) has emerged as a powerful tool in social policy-making and socio-economics, offering a flexible and dynamic approach to understanding and simulating complex systems. While traditional analytic methods may be less…
We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…
The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…
Predicting long-term outcomes of interventions is necessary for educational and social policy-making processes that might widely influence our society for the long-term. However, performing such predictions based on data from large-scale…
The Future Elderly Model and related microsimulations are modeled as Markov chains. These simulations rely on longitudinal survey data to estimate their transition models. The use of survey data presents several incomplete data problems,…
Many complex systems can be described by population models, in which a pool of agents interacts and produces complex collective behaviours. We consider the problem of verifying formal properties of the underlying mathematical representation…
Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…
For the assessment of the financial soundness of a pension fund, it is necessary to take into account mortality forecasting so that longevity risk is consistently incorporated into future cash flows. In this article, we employ machine…
We introduce a general modeling framework to predict the outcomes, at the population level, of individual psychology and behavior. The framework prescribes that researchers build a cost function that embodies knowledge of what trait values…
Markov cohort state-transition models have been the standard approach for simulating the prognosis of patients or, more generally, the life trajectories of individuals over a time period. Current approaches for estimating the variance of a…
Markov Population Models are a widespread formalism used to model the dynamics of complex systems, with applications in Systems Biology and many other fields. The associated Markov stochastic process in continuous time is often analyzed by…
This paper proposes a simulation-based framework for assessing and improving the performance of a pension fund management scheme. This framework is modular and allows the definition of customized performance metrics that are used to assess…
The increasing difficulties in financing the welfare state and in particular public retirement pensions have been one of the outcomes both of the decrease of fertility and birth rates combined with the increase of life expectancy. The…
In this article, a new mathematical model of human population growth as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of applications is proposed. The research of this system was carried out a…
Birth rates have dramatically decreased and, with continuous improvements in life expectancy, pension expenditure is on an irreversibly increasing path. This will raise serious concerns for the sustainability of the public pension systems…