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This paper proposes a novel identification strategy relying on quasi-instrumental variables (quasi-IVs). A quasi-IV is a relevant but possibly invalid IV because it is not exogenous or not excluded. We show that a variety of models with…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-23 Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc , Jad Beyhum

Observational genome-wide association studies are now widely used for causal inference in genetic epidemiology. To maintain privacy, such data is often only publicly available as summary statistics, and often studies for the endogenous…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Shimeng Huang , Niklas Pfister , Jack Bowden

Instrumental Variable (IV) provides a source of treatment randomization that is conditionally independent of the outcomes, responding to the challenges of counterfactual and confounding biases. In finance, IV construction typically relies…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-27 Ying Chen , Ziwei Xu , Kotaro Inoue , Ryutaro Ichise

We develop a framework for quantifying omitted variable bias (OVB) in nonlinear instrumental variable (IV) estimators, including the local average treatment effect (LATE), the LATE for the treated (LATT), and the partially linear IV model…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-07 Yu-Min Yen

The instrumental variable method is a prominent approach to recover under certain conditions, valid inference about a treatment causal effect even when unmeasured confounding might be present. In a groundbreaking paper, Imbens and Angrist…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen

Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) is a popular method for estimating treatment effects from observational data. However, its correctness relies on the untestable (and frequently implausible) assumption that all confounders have been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-04 Jacob Dorn , Kevin Guo

We develop results for the use of Lasso and Post-Lasso methods to form first-stage predictions and estimate optimal instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) models with many instruments, $p$. Our results apply even when $p$ is much…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Daniel Chen , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

We are in the middle of a remarkable rise in the use and capability of artificial intelligence. Much of this growth has been fueled by the success of deep learning architectures: models that map from observables to outputs via multiple…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-02 Jason Hartford , Greg Lewis , Kevin Leyton-Brown , Matt Taddy

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Wentao Gao , Thuc Duy Le

We propose a weak-identification-robust test for linear instrumental variable (IV) regressions with high-dimensional instruments, whose number is allowed to exceed the sample size. In addition, our test is robust to general error…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-01 Qu Feng , Sombut Jaidee , Wenjie Wang

One of the fundamental challenges in causal inference is to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on its outcome of interest from observational data. However, causal effect estimation often suffers from the impacts of confounding bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-23 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

Empirical instrumental variables (IV) studies often report separate results based on low-dimensional instruments and many base instruments. This paper proposes a combination test that integrates these commonly reported statistics. The test…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-25 Liyu Dou , Pengjin Min , Wenjie Wang , Yichong Zhang

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

Estimating varying treatment effects in randomized trials with noncompliance is inherently challenging since variation comes from two separate sources: variation in the impact itself and variation in the compliance rate. In this setting,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-28 Jared D. Fisher , David W. Puelz , Sameer K. Deshpande

This paper proposes computationally efficient methods that can be used for instrumental variable quantile regressions (IVQR) and related methods with statistical guarantees. This is much needed when we investigate heterogenous treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-06 Yinchu Zhu

An important concern in an observational study is whether or not there is unmeasured confounding, i.e., unmeasured ways in which the treatment and control groups differ before treatment that affect the outcome. We develop a test of whether…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-26 Zijian Guo , Jing Cheng , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

In this paper we propose a heterogeneous modeling framework which achieves individual-wise feature selection and individualized covariates' effects subgrouping simultaneously. In contrast to conventional model selection approaches, the new…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-11 Xiwei Tang , Fei Xue , Annie Qu

Instrumental variables (IVs), sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome, play an important role in causal inference with unobserved confounders. However, the existing IV-based counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-14 Junkun Yuan , Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Fei Wu , Lanfen Lin

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) from observational data is relevant in many fields such as personalized medicine. However, in practice, the treatment assignment is usually confounded by unobserved variables and thus…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-24 Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel