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This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu

We consider the problem of inferring an unknown number of clusters in replicated multinomial data. Under a model based clustering point of view, this task can be treated by estimating finite mixtures of multinomial distributions with or…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-07 Panagiotis Papastamoulis

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2013-07-24 Reason Lesego Machete

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

We describe collective-move Monte Carlo algorithms designed to approximate the overdamped dynamics of self-assembling nanoscale components equipped with strong, short-ranged and anisotropic interactions. Conventional Monte Carlo simulations…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-04-16 Stephen Whitelam

We propose a clustered local projection (clustered LP) method to estimate impulse response functions in a class of time-varying models where parameter variation is linked to a low-dimensional matrix of observables. We show that the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-04 Ana Maria Herrera , Elena Pesavento , Alessia Scudiero

Model-based clustering is a popular approach for clustering multivariate data which has seen applications in numerous fields. Nowadays, high-dimensional data are more and more common and the model-based clustering approach has adapted to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Michael Fop , Thomas Brendan Murphy

The use of a finite mixture of normal distributions in model-based clustering allows to capture non-Gaussian data clusters. However, identifying the clusters from the normal components is challenging and in general either achieved by…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-21 Gertraud Malsiner-Walli , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Bettina Grün

Robust clustering of high-dimensional data is an important topic because clusters in real datasets are often heavy-tailed and/or asymmetric. Traditional approaches to model-based clustering often fail for high dimensional data, e.g., due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-07 Alexa A. Sochaniwsky , Michael P. B. Gallaugher , Yang Tang , Paul D. McNicholas

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

The importance of variable selection for clustering has been recognized for some time, and mixture models are well-established as a statistical approach to clustering. Yet, the literature on variable selection in model-based clustering…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Mackenzie R. Neal , Paul D. McNicholas

We are concerned in clustering continuous data sets subject to non-ignorable missingness. We perform clustering with a specific semi-parametric mixture, under the assumption of conditional independence given the component. The mixture model…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-20 Marie Du Roy de Chaumaray , Matthieu Marbac

Using the concept of finite-size scaling, Monte Carlo calculations of various models have become a very useful tool for the study of critical phenomena, with the system linear dimension as a variable. As an example, several recent studies…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Kurt Binder , Erik Luijten , Marcus Müller , Nigel B. Wilding , Henk W. J. Blöte

We introduce a novel statistical significance-based approach for clustering hierarchical data using semi-parametric linear mixed-effects models designed for responses with laws in the exponential family (e.g., Poisson and Bernoulli). Within…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Alessandra Ragni , Chiara Masci , Francesca Ieva , Anna Maria Paganoni

We propose a modification, based on the RESTART (repetitive simulation trials after reaching thresholds) and DPR (dynamics probability redistribution) rare event simulation algorithms, of the standard diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Martin Hairer , Jonathan Weare

Graph clustering is widely used in many data analysis applications. In this paper we propose several parallel graph clustering algorithms based on Monte Carlo simulations and expectation maximization in the context of stochastic block…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-09-05 Frederic Prost , Jisang Yoon

We study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in…

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-08-11 Siyu Chen , Alfredo Glioti , Giuliano Panico , Andrea Wulzer

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-18 Kirtan Padh , Jakob Zeitler , David Watson , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva , Niki Kilbertus