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We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-05 Bernhard Klar

For a fixed positive integer $\;k,\;$ limit laws of linearly normalized $\;k$-th upper order statistics are well known. In this article, a comprehensive study of tail behaviours of limit laws of normalized $k$-th upper order statistics…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-11 Sreenivasan Ravi , Mandagere Chandrashekhar Manohar

In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-19 E. Ocran , R. Minkah , G. Kallah-Dagadu , K. Doku-Amponsah

In this paper non-asymptotic exponential and moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time martingale under norming sequence 1/n, as in the classical Law of Large Numbers (LLN), by means of martingale differences…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-10 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

We study the long-time behavior of the probability density associated with the decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by a superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times. It is shown that if the random walk is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-05-02 S. I. Denisov , H. Kantz

Imitation learning algorithms learn viable policies by imitating an expert's behavior when reward signals are not available. Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) is a state-of-the-art algorithm for learning policies when the…

Consider a system of $N$ parallel single-server queues with unit-exponential service time distribution and a single dispatcher where tasks arrive as a Poisson process of rate $\lambda(N)$. When a task arrives, the dispatcher assigns it to…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-25 Sayan Banerjee , Debankur Mukherjee

We consider distinguishing between two distribution tail models when tails of one model are lighter (or heavier) than those of the other. Two procedures are proposed: one scale-free and one location- and scale-free, and their asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-31 Igor Rodionov

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-06 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

We consider gated polling systems with two special features: (i) retrials, and (ii) glue or reservation periods. When a type-$i$ customer arrives, or retries, during a glue period of station $i$, it will be served in the next visit period…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-20 Murtuza Ali Abidini , Onno Boxma , Bara Kim , Jeongsim Kim , Jacques Resing

We consider the FCFS $GI/GI/n$ queue, and prove the first simple and explicit bounds that scale as $\frac{1}{1-\rho}$ under only the assumption that inter-arrival times have finite second moment, and service times have finite $2+\epsilon$…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-06 David A. Goldberg , Yuan Li

We consider autoregressive sequences $X_n=aX_{n-1}+\xi_n$ and $M_n=\max\{aM_{n-1},\xi_n\}$ with a constant $a\in(0,1)$ and with positive, independent and identically distributed innovations $\{\xi_k\}$. It is known that if $\mathbf…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Denis Denisov , Gunter Hinrich , Martin Kolb , Vitali Wachtel

The goodness-of-fit test for discrimination of two tail distribution using higher order statistics is proposed. The consistency of proposed test is proved for two different alternatives. We do not assume belonging the corresponding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-21 Igor Vladimirovich Rodionov

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-16 Feynman Liang , Liam Hodgkinson , Michael W. Mahoney

We study an equivalence of (i) deterministic pathwise statements appearing in the online learning literature (termed \emph{regret bounds}), (ii) high-probability tail bounds for the supremum of a collection of martingales (of a specific…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-15 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

In the paper, we find exact asymptotics of the left tail of renewal measure for a broad class of two-sided random walks. We only require that an exponential moment of the left tail is finite. Through a simple change of measure approach, our…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-01 Bartosz Kołodziejek

We study the tails of closing auction return distributions for a sample of liquid European stocks. We use the stochastic call auction model of Derksen et al. (2020a), to derive a relation between tail exponents of limit order placement…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-21 M. Derksen , B. Kleijn , R. de Vilder

Forecasting multivariate time series is a computationally intensive task challenged by extreme or redundant samples. Recent resampling methods aim to increase training efficiency by reweighting samples based on their running losses.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Jiang You , Arben Cela , René Natowicz , Jacob Ouanounou , Patrick Siarry

In the paper we consider the asymptotics of logarithmic tails of a perpetuity $$R \stackrel{d}{=}\sum_{j=1}^\infty Q_j \prod_{k=1}^{j-1}M_k,\qquad(M_n,Q_n)_{n=1}^\infty \mbox{ are i.i.d. copies of }(M,Q),$$ in the case when…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Bartosz Kołodziejek