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We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-24 Vanessa Böhm , François Lanusse , Uroš Seljak

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Neutron noise analysis is a predominant technique for fissile matter identification with passive methods. Quantifying the uncertainties associated with the estimated nuclear parameters is crucial for decision-making. A conservative…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-03 Paul Lartaud , Philippe Humbert , Josselin Garnier

The role of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning has become crucial with growing use of predictive models in high-risk applications. Though a large class of methods exists for measuring deep uncertainties, in practice, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Bindya Venkatesh , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

Our understanding of physical systems generally depends on our ability to match complex computational modelling with measured experimental outcomes. However, simulations with large parameter spaces suffer from inverse problem instabilities,…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2020-01-22 M. F. Kasim , T. P. Galligan , J. Topp-Mugglestone , G. Gregori , S. M. Vinko

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic interpretation.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Haoyi Song , Ruihan Ji , Naichen Shi , Fan Lai , Raed Al Kontar

The thermal transport community is increasingly interested in rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) of their measurements. In this work, we argue that Bayesian parameter estimation (BPE) represents a powerful framework for both…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-12-17 Jeremy Drew , Shravan Godse , Yuxing Liang , Abhishek Pathak , Jonathan A. Malen , Rachel C. Kurchin

Neural networks (NNs) often assign high confidence to their predictions, even for points far out-of-distribution, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) a challenge. When they are employed to model interatomic potentials in materials…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Aik Rui Tan , Shingo Urata , Samuel Goldman , Johannes C. B. Dietschreit , Rafael Gómez-Bombarelli

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 João Caldeira , Brian Nord

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable tools across various applications, making it more important than ever to ensure the quality and the trustworthiness of their outputs. This has led to growing interest in uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

This work presents a framework to inversely quantify uncertainty in the model parameters of the friction model using earthquake data via the Bayesian inference. The forward model is the popular rate- and state- friction (RSF) model along…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Saumik Dana , Karthik Reddy Lyathakula

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Chao Chen , Chenghua Guo , Rui Xu , Jiujiu Chen , Xiangwen Liao , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong , Philip Yu

Scientific imaging problems are often severely ill-posed, and hence have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Accurately quantifying the uncertainty in the solutions to such problems is therefore critical for the rigorous interpretation of…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-22 Julian Tachella , Marcelo Pereyra

Deep learning-based surrogate models have demonstrated remarkable advantages over classical solvers in terms of speed, often achieving speedups of 10 to 1000 times over traditional partial differential equation (PDE) solvers. However, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Tailin Wu , Willie Neiswanger , Hongtao Zheng , Stefano Ermon , Jure Leskovec

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has gained traction in an attempt to improve the interpretability and robustness of machine learning predictions. Specifically (medical) biosignals such as electroencephalography (EEG), electrocardiography…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-06 Ivo Pascal de Jong , Andreea Ioana Sburlea , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a booming discipline for complex computational models based on the analysis of robustness, reliability and credibility. UQ analysis for nonlinear crash models with high dimensional outputs presents…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Xabier Larrayoz , Pedro Díez

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) over graphs arises in a number of safety-critical applications in network science. The Gaussian process (GP), as a classical Bayesian framework for UQ, has been developed to handle graph-structured data by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Georgios B. Giannakis

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are fundamental for theoretically describing numerous physical processes that are based on some input fields in spatial configurations. Understanding the physical process, in general, requires…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Mahadevan Ganesh , Stuart C Hawkins , Alexandre Tartakovsky , Ramakrishna Tipireddy

We introduce a novel approach for calibrating uncertainty quantification (UQ) tailored for multi-modal large language models (LLMs). Existing state-of-the-art UQ methods rely on consistency among multiple responses generated by the LLM on…

The Gaussian process (GP) is a Bayesian nonparametric paradigm that is widely adopted for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in a number of safety-critical applications, including robotics, healthcare, as well as surveillance. The consistency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Georgios B. Giannakis