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Extracting low-dimensional summary statistics from large datasets is essential for efficient (likelihood-free) inference. We characterize three different classes of summaries and demonstrate their importance for correctly analyzing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Till Hoffmann , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Niccolò Dalmasso , Ann B. Lee , Rafael Izbicki , Taylor Pospisil , Ilmun Kim , Chieh-An Lin

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Maoran Xu , Hua Zhou , Yujie Hu , Leo L. Duan

Model selection in the presence of intractable likelihoods remains a central challenge in Bayesian inference. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides a flexible likelihood-free framework, but its use for model choice is known to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Clara Grazian

One of the fundamental problems in machine learning is the estimation of a probability distribution from data. Many techniques have been proposed to study the structure of data, most often building around the assumption that observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-22 Oren Rippel , Ryan Prescott Adams

When an expert operates a perilous dynamic system, ideal constraint information is tacitly contained in their demonstrated trajectories and controls. The likelihood of these demonstrations can be computed, given the system dynamics and task…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-26 David L. McPherson , Kaylene C. Stocking , S. Shankar Sastry

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-17 Isidro Gómez-Vargas , J. Alberto Vázquez

Complicated generative models often result in a situation where computing the likelihood of observed data is intractable, while simulating from the conditional density given a parameter value is relatively easy. Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-29 Mijung Park , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Dino Sejdinovic

For future surveys, spectroscopic follow-up for all supernovae will be extremely difficult. However, one can use light curve fitters, to obtain the probability that an object is a Type Ia. One may consider applying a probability cut to the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-24 Michelle Lochner , Bruce A. Bassett , Melvin Varughese , Renée Hlozek , Martin Kunz , Mat Smith , James Newling

We extend field-level inference to jointly constrain the cosmological parameters $\{A,\omega_{\rm cdm},H_0\}$, in both real and redshift space. Our analyses are based on mock data generated using a perturbative forward model, with noise…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-25 Kazuyuki Akitsu , Marko Simonović , Shi-Fan Chen , Giovanni Cabass , Matias Zaldarriaga

Effective characterisation of the brain grey matter cytoarchitecture with quantitative sensitivity to soma density and volume remains an unsolved challenge in diffusion MRI (dMRI). Solving the problem of relating the dMRI signal with…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-05 Maëliss Jallais , Pedro Luiz Coelho Rodrigues , Alexandre Gramfort , Demian Wassermann

The number density of galaxy clusters across mass and redshift has been established as a powerful cosmological probe. Cosmological analyses with galaxy clusters traditionally employ scaling relations. However, many challenges arise from…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-08 M. Kosiba , N. Cerardi , M. Pierre , F. Lanusse , C. Garrel , N. Werner , M. Shalak

Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-07 Supranta S. Boruah , Tim Eifler , Vivian Miranda , Sai Krishanth P. M

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers offer a promising path towards resolution of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, provided their constraints are shown to be free from systematics such as the Malmquist bias. In…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-11-03 Francesca Gerardi , Stephen M. Feeney , Justin Alsing

Developing accurate analysis techniques to combine various probes of cosmology is essential to tighten constraints on cosmological parameters and to check for inconsistencies in our model of the Universe. In this paper we develop a joint…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-15 Tim Eifler , Elisabeth Krause , Peter Schneider , Klaus Honscheid

Weak gravitational lensing is one of the few direct methods to map the dark-matter distribution on large scales in the Universe, and to estimate cosmological parameters. We study a Bayesian inference problem where the data covariance…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-01 Martin Kilbinger , Emille E. O. Ishida , Jessi Cisewski-Kehe

Bayesian inference without the likelihood evaluation, or likelihood-free inference, has been a key research topic in simulation studies for gaining quantitatively validated simulation models on real-world datasets. As the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , YoonYeong Kim , Yongjin Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data. Recent work in population genetics has centered on designing inference methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-07 Jeffrey Chan , Valerio Perrone , Jeffrey P. Spence , Paul A. Jenkins , Sara Mathieson , Yun S. Song

Likelihood-free methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have extended the reach of statistical inference to problems with computationally intractable likelihoods. Such approaches perform well for small-to-moderate dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-12 G. S. Rodrigues , D. J. Nott , S. A. Sisson